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Geopolitics and Portfolios: Inflation, Oil Prices, and What It Means for Markets

Geopolitics and Portfolios: Inflation, Oil Prices, and What It Means for Markets

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 In Episode 52 of The Money Alchemist, Ben and Brent walk through the latest market developments, including inflation trends, labor data, and shifts in private credit. They also discuss the market implications of recent geopolitical events, including Operation Epic Fury, and how these dynamics are influencing oil, global trade, and investor sentiment. The episode closes with a practical tip of the week and a broader perspective on how these moving pieces connect back to portfolios. About your Hosts Ben Jones, CFP® Managing Director, National Wealth Management Group www.nwmgadvisors.com  Sign up for Ben’s newsletter at www.karatstick.com  Follow him on X @thekaratstick https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-nwmg/   Brent Gargano, CFP® Founder & Advisor, Infinite Wealth Planning  www.infinitewealthplanning.com linkedin.com/in/brent-gargano-cfp®-2067b573   Comments or questions? Email us at comments@moneyalchemistshow.com Agenda: What’s happening in 10 minutes Inflation returning - Jan PPI moves up (Core at 3.6%), oil up +50% YTDEmployment data not hot but resilient - March 6 BLS report Wage inflation moves higher from 3.7 to 3.8%Unemployment up from 4.3 to 4.4%Labor participation dipped to 62% - lowest since 12/2021Job cuts hit nearly all sectors, healthcare hardest hit due to Kaiser Permanente strike Private Credit exodus - duration mismatch in evergreen funds apparent, banks enter space in 2022-2023 increasing competition, lowering spreads and covenant quality - older loans, especially to software co.s affected by AI. Retail requesting redemptions in mass. Solvency issue at the fund level, not the issuer level - middle market showing financial strength Consumer spending up 3.2% YoYBroadening trade widensTransition to Operation Epic Fury BlackRock (HLEND), Blue Owl (OBDC II) & Blackstone BCRED have all frozen redemptions Topic du jour - Operation Epic Fury market implications Over 5,000 targets struck - more than Desert Storm & Operation Iraqi Freedom - rumor is traffic cameras provided critical intel Interim acting Supreme Leader in limbo (Mjtaba Khamenei or Alireza Arafi). Tehran continues to reject unconditional demands 7 service members KIA. March 10 reported to be most intense day of strikes yetPolitically, Trump Admin frame “short-term” campaign message to garner public support - initially 2-weeks, now 4Control of global oil shipments is a major objective, albeit not publicly highlighted - Oil must trade primarily in dollars to maintain dollar hegemony - Iran/Venezuelan oil trade fell largely outside of U.S. dollar systemCrude Oil futures (April 26 contract) on NY Mercantile peaked around $95 before pulling back to sub $90. USD largely unchanged YTD but strengthening since launch of operation - speculate continued strengthStrait of Hormuz effectively ‘closed’ in game of chicken. Threats are the primary leverage. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy using small boats & drones for hit and run - estimated 5 ships have been hit. Tip of the week If planning an expensive vacation (i.e. resort package), upgrade to an Executive Membership at Costco & book through Costco Travel using the Citi Rewards card. This will net you back 5%. New cardholders can sometimes take advantage of one-time promos and stack benefits Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/one-big-reason-ships-and-insurers-are-unwilling-to-risk-strait-of-hormuz.html https://www.worldometers.info/oil/us-oil/ https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-hourly-earnings-yoy https://www.bls.gov/ppi/home.htm Disclosure: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as personalized investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed here are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the views of National Wealth Management Group, LLC or its affiliates. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy discussed will be successful or profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Economic discussions are based on current data and opinions, which are subject to change and may not accurately predict future events. We encourage listeners to conduct their own research and seek guidance from a certified financial advisor before making any decisions. Advisory services are offered through National Wealth Management Group, LLC. For more information about National Wealth Management Group including our Forms ADV and CRS, please visit our website www.nwmgadvisors.com or contact us directly. To connect with Ben Jones or Brent Gargano directly, email us at comments@themoneyaltchemistshow.com.
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