We tend to think of tragedies as a single terrible moment, rather than the result of multiple bad decisions. Can this pattern be reversed? We try — with stories about wildfires, school shootings, and love.

• SOURCES:
  • Amy Edmondson, professor of leadership management at Harvard Business School.
  • Helen Fisher, former senior research fellow at The Kinsey Institute and former chief science advisor to Match.com.
  • Ed Galea, founding director of the Fire Safety Engineering Group at the University of Greenwich.
  • Gary Klein, cognitive psychologist and pioneer in the field of naturalistic decision making.
  • David Riedman, founder of the K-12 School Shooting Database.
  • Aaron Stark, head cashier at Lowe's and keynote speaker.
  • John Van Reenen, professor at the London School of Economics.

• RESOURCES:
  • "Ethan Crumbley: Parents of Michigan school gunman sentenced to at least 10 years," by Brandon Drenon (New York Times, 2024).
  • Right Kind of Wrong: The Science of Failing Well, by Amy Edmondson (2023).
  • "How Fire Turned Lahaina Into a Death Trap," by Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Serge F. Kovaleski, Shawn Hubler, and Riley Mellen (The New York Times, 2023).
  • The Violence Project: How to Stop a Mass Shooting Epidemic, by Jillian Peterson and James Densley (2021).
  • "I Was Almost A School Shooter," by Aaron Stark (TEDxBoulder, 2018).

• EXTRAS:
  • "Is Perfectionism Ruining Your Life?" by People I (Mostly) Admire (2023).
  • "Why Did You Marry That Person?" by Freakonomics Radio (2022).
  • "What Do We Really Learn From Failure?" by No Stupid Questions (2021).
  • "How to Fail Like a Pro," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).
  • "Failure Is Your Friend," by Freakonomics Radio (2014).

It used to be that making documentary films meant taking a vow of poverty (and obscurity). The streaming revolution changed that. Award-winning filmmaker R.J. Cutler talks to Stephen Dubner about capturing Billie Eilish’s musical genius and Martha Stewart’s vulnerability — and why he really, really, really needs to make a film about the New York Mets.

• SOURCES:
  • R.J. Cutler, filmmaker.

• RESOURCES:
  • Fight for Glory, documentary (2025).
  • Martha, documentary (2024).
  • "Reality Check: The Boom—or Glut—in Streaming Documentaries Has Sparked a Reckoning Among Filmmakers and Their Subjects," by Reeves Wiedeman (Vulture, 2023).
  • "Inside the Documentary Cash Grab," by Mia Galuppo and Katie Kilkenny (The Hollywood Reporter, 2022).
  • Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry, documentary (2021).

• EXTRAS:
  • “Ari Emanuel Is Never Indifferent,” by Freakonomics Radio (2023).

It’s been in development for five years and has at least a year to go. On the eve of its out-of-town debut, the actor playing Lincoln quit. And the producers still need to raise another $15 million to bring the show to New York. There really is no business like show business. (Part three of a three-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Christopher Ashley, artistic director of La Jolla Playhouse.
  • Debby Buchholz, managing director of La Jolla Playhouse.
  • Carmen Cusack, actor.
  • Quentin Earl Darrington, actor.
  • Joe DiPietro, playwright and lyricist.
  • Crystal Monee Hall, composer, singer, actor.
  • Ivan Hernandez, actor.
  • Michael Rushton, professor of arts administration at Indiana University.
  • Jeffrey Seller, Broadway producer.
  • Alan Shorr, Broadway producer.
  • Daniel Watts, writer, choreographer, actor.

• RESOURCES:
  • 3 Summers of Lincoln (2025).
  • "Review: Visceral ‘3 Summers of Lincoln’ is thrilling and thought-provoking," by Pam Kragen (San Diego Union-Tribune, 2025).
  • "What’s Wrong with the Theatre is What’s Wrong With Society," by Michael Rushton (ArtsJournal, 2023).
  • "American Theater Is Imploding Before Our Eyes," by Isaac Butler (New York Times, 2023).
  • The Moral Foundations of Public Funding for the Arts, by Michael Rushton (2023).

• EXTRAS:
  • “How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).
  • “You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).