Final Oscar Predictions (Part 3) — Acting, Directing, Writing & Best Picture | ACADEMY ANONYMOUS

In this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS, we conclude our FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (Part 3), breaking down the Academy Awards’ most talked-about races — Directing, Screenwriting, Acting, and Best Picture.

Pundits insist these categories are “locked,” but history says otherwise. We’re tracking the hidden vulnerabilities, surprise snubs, and late-stage breakthroughs that could define nomination morning — and help you perfect your Oscar ballot.

We analyze the 2026 Oscar contenders in:

Best Casting

The Academy’s newest category: Will voters default to the status quo, or can two international films crash the party and make a statement?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Can anyone crack the consensus five — from Mary Shelley and Denis Johnson adaptations to Hamnet, Alien Bosses, and the ever-present PTA?

Best Original Screenplay

Richard Linklater and Ethan Hawke threaten to spoil spots long reserved for celebrated international films, while Sinnersand Marty Supreme ride undeniable momentum.

Best Supporting Actor

Beyond the perceived “safe” picks (One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value), are Paul Mescal or Jacob Elordi far more vulnerable than expected? And who’s waiting to capitalize on a major snub?

Best Supporting Actress

A volatile three-way race anchors the category, but the final slots are wide open. Can recent SAG snubs be overcome? Are surprise veterans or pop-culture wildcards ready to surge? Expect chaos.

Best Actor

The most competitive acting race of the year — and someone big is missing. Is it Michael B. Jordan or Joel Edgerton? Can Jesse Plemons convert SAG momentum? Is Wagner Moura truly safe?

Best Actress

Buckley is the clear frontrunner, while Chase Infiniti carries the category’s strongest momentum. Renate Reinsve capitalizes on European love, while Rose Byne defeats the odds. The final slot becomes a high-stakes showdown between a favorite and a comeback-gal.

Best Director

Clear locks, international threats, shocking snubs, and one potential jaw-dropper that could redefine the race entirely.

Best Picture

Studio heavyweights, Netflix contenders, acclaimed international films, and underdogs all feel “safe”… but only one slot remains. Will it go to another daring foreign-language breakout or a late-career auteur passion project?

If you want to understand where the Oscar races are actually fragile, and where the Academy is most likely to surprise, this is the episode to hear before nomination morning.

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