Three edges for December 18 — Milan–Napoli Under 2.5, Rams +2, and Jazz +8 — built on low-event game theory, weather leverage, and altitude math.

⚽ Under 2.5 (–140) — AC Milan at SSC Napoli

Neutral-site semifinal = risk knobs set to low. Both sides arrive short on creative midfield juice, Napoli’s attack just posted 0 goals across 180 minutes, and Milan’s striker situation screams “hold what we get.”

Expect compact blocks, set-piece squabbles, and a referee happy to turn 90 minutes into a stop-start traffic drill. xG profile clusters around 0–0 / 1–0 either way. Add a desert trip and a cup final four days out, and this becomes chess, not pinball.

🏈 Los Angeles Rams +2 (–110) — at Seahawks

Seattle’s blindside is a soft spot, and L.A.’s edge rush treats soft spots like free samples. Add wind in Lumen — where deep balls turn into weather balloons — and Stafford’s intermediate efficiency wins out over Darnold’s “hold-it-and-hope” tendencies.

McVay historically tightens screws in December. The Rams’ run game travels; Seattle’s vertical game doesn’t — especially in a gale. Ugly favors the dog. Take the points and bring a poncho.

🏀 Utah Jazz +8 (–110) — Lakers at Jazz

Altitude tax + shallow visiting rotation = fourth-quarter wobble. Utah’s formula is high 3PA volume plus offensive rebounding, creating extra possessions — and big road-favorite spreads hate extra possessions.

L.A.’s rim protection is patchy, their transition defense gets gassy in Salt Lake, and +8 is two possessions of bubble wrap against late-game oxygen debt. Utah may not win the fight, but they land enough jabs to cash the ticket.

Three games. Three edges.

One principle: context beats aesthetics.

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