Three edges for December 17 — Manchester City -1.5, Timberwolves -7.5, and Golden Knights -1.5 — built on home dominance, paint control, and structural competence.

⚽ Manchester City -1.5 (–110) — Brentford at Manchester City

City turn the Etihad into a three-goal factory, while Brentford’s road form travels like milk in July (seven losses in eight; 1.56 GA per game). Pep’s “rotation” isn’t a downgrade — it’s an audition.

Savinho and Bobb get clean 1v1s against shaky wing-back coverage, and even if Brentford nick a set piece, City’s wide overloads and cutbacks keep the scoreboard busy.

This looks less like a cup tie and more like a stress test.

🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 (–109) — Grizzlies at Timberwolves

Memphis is 1–12 vs teams over .500 and now minus real rim protection. Minnesota’s size turns that into a problem immediately.

JJJ’s foul-and-board profile vs Gobert is a folding chair vs a refrigerator, and the Wolves’ depth covers fine even if Edwards rests. Minnesota controls pace, wins the glass, and lives at the line.

Even a hobbling Ja can’t outrun math. We’ll lay it and let the paint do the talking.

🏒 Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+150) — Devils at Golden Knights

Two weeks ago: VGK 3–0 in Jersey.

Since then, the Devils are still missing Hughes and Meier, while Markstrom’s recent form is a fire alarm (3.56 GAA, .874 SV%).

Cassidy’s structure squeezes the slot, Eichel’s on a heater, and the “pull-the-goalie tax” in Vegas shows up late like resort fees — and pushes you over the number.

We’re betting competence vs crisis, with empty-net equity baked in.

Three games. Three edges.

One principle: structure breaks chaos.

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