Three edges for December 16 — Canucks–Rangers Under 5.5, Oilers ML, and Spurs +2.5 — built on low-event profiles, special-teams leverage, and neutral-site math.

Two low-event 5-on-5 teams. Two goalies who smother rebounds. And a script that favors dump-and-change over a track meet.New York leans on special teams. Vancouver leans on structure. Neither profile screams “six-plus.”Expect a sleepy first, trenchy third, and a 3–2 / 2–1 landing zone.The only villain is the empty-netter; otherwise this is Broadway drama where the understudies never get a solo.

Edmonton’s chance creation plus a ruthless power play puts real stress on a Penguins blue line that’s wobbled late.McDavid and Draisaitl tilt the ice shift-to-shift, and one extra high-danger save is usually enough — Edmonton more often gets it.Road tax is baked in, and the price still reflects the better offense and cleaner special teams.If there’s a revenge-in-net subplot, great. We’ll take the popcorn and the payout.

Neutral-site finals turn favorites into coin flips. Those +2.5 points are armor against foul-ball and overtime chaos.Wembanyama’s wingspan shrinks Brunson’s angles, and a thinner Knicks bench means fresher Spurs legs in clutch time.San Antonio’s dog profile travels; New York likely needs clean jump-shooting to separate.Translation: grindy, one-possession theater — the perfect spot to pocket a bucket.

Three games. Three edges.

One principle: protect against chaos, let math breathe.

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