In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the sharp late-November market swings, why December historically favors gains, and how shifting Fed expectations have driven sentiment. They break down sector rotation, the surprising divergence between crypto and junk tech, the return of market breadth, and the growing possibility of reflationary growth into 2026. The conversation also covers rising unemployment data, an increasingly divided Fed, and how the accelerating AI investment race may continue fueling key parts of the market.

Key Takeaways

• Market Breadth Expansion: The advance-decline line hitting new highs shows the rally is widening beyond just mega-cap tech.
• Sector Rotation Strength: Technology lagged in November while healthcare, materials, staples, and financials helped offset the pullback—validating diversified positioning.
• Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Whipsawed: Odds of a December cut plunged below 30% before surging back above 80% due to rising unemployment, dovish Fed commentary, and Beige Book labor softness.
• Reflationary Growth View for 2026: Strong global commodities, resilient demand, and expected Fed easing support the case for reflation rather than recession.
• Crypto Decouples from Junk Tech: Bitcoin fell sharply while non-profitable tech surged, breaking a correlation that typically signals risk-on/off behavior.
• AI Spending Cycle Accelerates: Competition among AI leaders is driving massive capital spending—benefiting chipmakers, data centers, and related sectors.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, and why international equities are becoming more attractive. They also touch on the role of gold and Bitcoin, how to think about barbell strategies, and what history teaches about market narratives.

Key Takeaways

• Market Setup: Today’s environment features a cyclical bull market on top of a long-running secular bull market, similar to past periods like 1994 and the late 1990s.
• Interest Rates & Valuations: The 2022 market drop came largely from PE compression as rates jumped from near zero to 5%, while earnings actually grew.
• Historical Parallels: Timmer highlights similarities between today and both the late 1960s (loose fiscal policy, sticky inflation) and late 1990s (tech-driven excitement).
• Barbell Approach: A mix of mega-cap leaders and undervalued international equities may help manage concentration risk, especially as Europe and Japan boost payouts and trade at lower valuations.
• Gold & Bitcoin: Timmer views both as scarce, diversifying assets that hedge against periods when bonds may struggle, especially in potential fiscal-dominance environments.
• Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Small caps show mixed performance due to both traditional domestic exposure and speculative, unprofitable tech tied to AI.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Jurrien Timmer:

• LinkedIn: Jurrien Timmer

• X: @TimmerFidelity

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Disclosure: Jurrien Timmer is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more.

Key Takeaways

• Fed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.
• Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.
• Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.
• Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.
• Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MacroPodcast #InvestingInsights #MarketOutlook #CarsonGroup

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” growth, and explain why they still see powerful tailwinds for investors heading into 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Government Reopening & Market Optimism: Ryan and Sonu expect the government to fully reopen within a week, though they highlight that split power in Congress has often aligned with positive stock performance.
• Political Shifts & Gridlock Effect: Off-year elections showed strong results for Democrats, setting up a potential split Congress—an outcome that markets have rewarded in past cycles due to reduced legislative volatility.
• Consumer Sentiment vs. Market Reality: Confidence levels remain near historic lows even as inflation cools and the job market holds steady. The hosts argue that perception, not data, is fueling pessimism.
• Earnings Strength & Global Tailwinds: S&P 500 earnings growth surged from 7.9% to 13%, with companies generating more than half their revenue abroad leading the way—evidence that global demand continues to support U.S. markets.
• Debunking the “K-Shaped Economy” Narrative: Sonu breaks down why claims of widening inequality are overstated, emphasizing that spending patterns and income distribution remain consistent with long-term trends.
• Labor Market Stability: Despite attention-grabbing layoff headlines, jobless claims and hiring plans show a resilient labor market, reinforcing the broader theme of economic strength beneath the noise.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketOutlook #InvestingInsights #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #CarsonGroup

In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today’s markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500’s impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and how market breadth and global participation are evolving. The conversation also explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, cooling trade tensions, and the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy.

Key Takeaways

• Historic Market Strength: The S&P 500 has gained nearly 23% over the past six months, placing this move in the top 4% of all six-month returns. History shows that strong momentum often leads to continued upside in the following year.
• Tech-Driven Leadership: The recent rally has been powered largely by technology. The Magnificent Seven continue to dominate, with the S&P 500 Technology Index up 44% over six months.
• Global Momentum: It’s not just the U.S.—developed and emerging markets are rallying too. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are leading EM gains, while countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Japan also show strong performance.
• Economic Resilience: Despite talk of a “K-shaped” economy, U.S. GDP growth remains near 2%. Earnings are rising across sectors, with 80% of companies beating on both revenue and profits.
• Trade Tensions Easing: The U.S.–China trade war appears to be cooling, with both sides de-escalating tariffs and trade restrictions. China is resuming soybean purchases and suspending certain export controls, while the U.S. has paused new restrictions—reducing a major geopolitical headwind.
• Fed’s Delicate Balance: The Federal Reserve cut rates again, bringing total cuts to 150 basis points since the cycle’s peak. While inflation remains a concern for some members, Powell’s comments suggested a dovish tone, emphasizing that inflation pressures are manageable and economic momentum remains intact.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketMomentum #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #GlobalMarkets

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, hosted a special Halloween livestream featuring Joe Fahmy, Managing Director at Zor Capital, and Warren Pies, Co-Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research. Together they explore what’s driving markets at the end of 2025—from AI-led growth and investor sentiment to fiscal spending, oil, and the broader economic outlook. The result is an entertaining and insightful look at how two veteran strategists interpret this bull market and what it could mean heading into 2026 and beyond.

Key Takeaways

Joe Fahmy Segment:

• Broad-Based Bull Market: Joe sees strength well beyond the “Magnificent 7,” with AI, quantum computing, and clean energy creating multiple growth engines.
• Adaptability Over Bias: He stresses that successful investors aren’t perma-bulls or perma-bears. They adapt as the data changes.
• Technical Discipline: Joe relies on the 50-day moving average to define market health. Above it, stay constructive; below it, get defensive.
• Cautious Sentiment: He notes that many investors remain nervous, which helps sustain the market’s “wall of worry” and supports further upside.
• AI as the Next Revolution: He predicts the current bull market could extend into 2027 as AI transforms productivity similar to past technological breakthroughs.

Warren Pies Segment:

• Debasement: Warren frames today’s cycle as a shift from deflation fears to worries about fiscal expansion, debt, and currency dilution.
• Equities as Inflation Hedges: He highlights that S&P 500 earnings have outpaced inflation nearly every year since 2009, proving stocks’ resilience.
• Energy Outlook: Warren maintains a bearish view on oil, citing signs of oversupply and weakening global demand.
• Equity and Yield Outlook: He expects modest but positive stock gains through 2026 as yields drift lower and fiscal support remains steady.
• Economic View: Warren describes the U.S. economy as being in a “muddle-through slowdown,” with government spending and the wealth effect offsetting recession risks.

Joe and Warren are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Joe Fahmy:

• X: @jfahmy

Connect with Warren Pies:

• LinkedIn: Warren Pies

• X: @WarrenPies

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Markets #Investing #BullMarket #AI #Economy #Inflation #StockMarket #MarketOutlook

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss why a strong year-end rally may already be underway. They explore the drivers behind market momentum, earnings strength, inflation trends, and the Fed’s next moves, while adding insight, a bit of humor, and practical perspective for investors heading into the final stretch of 2025.

Key Takeaways:

· Seasonality on Investors’ Side: November and December have historically been strong months for equities, especially when the S&P 500 is up 15% heading into year-end.

· Resilient Earnings: Nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, one of the strongest showings in years.

· Sentiment Still Skeptical: Surveys continue to show more bears than bulls, but confidence is building as investors look toward a possible year-end rally.

· Inflation Cooling but Sticky: Core CPI rose just 0.23% in September (2.8% annualized), showing progress even as service-sector prices remain firm.

· The Fed Turns Dovish: Rate cuts are expected to continue into 2026, potentially bringing policy below 3%—a setup that has historically supported markets.

· Easing Trade Tensions: U.S.–China progress on tariffs and rare earths adds another macro tailwind to investor confidence.

· Market Breadth: Equal-weight indexes across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recently hit all-time highs, showing strength beyond mega-cap tech.

DON’T MISS our special Halloween livestream on YouTube starting at 10:30amCT this Friday, October 31, 2025! Click here for more info: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0alr4-vDLK8

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags:
#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketRally #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #WealthManagement

Summary:
In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Kate Hall, VP of Alternative Due Diligence at Carson Group. They dive into the “cockroaches in a bull market” conversation—what it means for credit markets, how private credit has evolved, and why due diligence and diversification are key in today’s environment. The trio also discusses gold’s surge, strong bank earnings, and why market signals still favor a solid finish to the year.

Key Takeaways:

• Credit Spreads – Markets remain steady with limited signs of broad stress.
• Private Credit Boom – The space has tripled since 2015, creating new risk dynamics.
• Diversification – Broad exposure cushions isolated defaults or fraud risks.
• Gold Momentum – Rising prices reflect sticky inflation and rate-cut expectations.
• Market Sentiment – A cooling VIX and broad participation support a strong Q4 outlook.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Kate Hall:

• LinkedIn: Kate Hall

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags:
#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #KateHall #PrivateCredit #Investing #Markets #BullMarket #Gold #MarketInsights #FinancialAdvisors #EconomicOutlook #Diversification