In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything not tied to the U.S.

Topics covered:

• The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottoms

• Why this may be the best macro environment in 40 years

• The policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollar

• Positioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assets

• How Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his process

• The dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadership

• Inflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenon

• Why AI’s economic impact will take longer than expected

• The probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenarios

• Fiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repression

• Why bonds are “a crap place to have your cash”

• The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equities

• Lessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders”

Timestamps:
00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk
02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets
06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity
08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump
12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline
15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation
20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility
26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation
36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities
42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance
47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook
51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity
56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy
01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment
01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end.

Main topics covered:
• The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum
• The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process
• Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction
• Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase
• Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples
• Trends in financials and what’s driving sector rotations
• Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning
• The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration
• Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar
• How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving
• Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-end

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup
04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators
07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages
10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals
12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market
15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq
18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade
20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation
23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy
25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups
27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning
29:00 Financials and recent weakness
31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy
34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration
37:00 Gold’s breakout and sell discipline using technicals
41:00 Oil’s setup and resistance levels
43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis
46:20 The dollar index and its key levels
48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds
51:10 Final takeaways and closing

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem.

Topics covered:

• How AI is driving a new era of electricity demand

• The evolving U.S. energy mix: oil, gas, nuclear, and renewables

• Why electricity is becoming the new oil

• The scale of power needed to support AI and data centers

• Opportunities and challenges in renewables and battery storage

• The resurgence of nuclear and the role of natural gas

• How U.S. shale transformed inflation and global energy markets

• Energy infrastructure and why it offers steady returns

• How the TCAI ETF captures the “AI infrastructure” opportunity

• Risks and resilience of the U.S. power grid

• Lessons from 30 years investing in energy

Timestamps:
00:00 Electricity is the new oil and the future of AI energy demand
02:00 The evolving U.S. energy mix and global demand growth
08:00 Why electricity, not oil, will power the next economic era
11:00 How much power AI and data centers will need
15:00 Can renewables meet rising energy demand?
20:00 The comeback of nuclear and its challenges
25:00 How U.S. shale changed global energy and inflation
32:00 Why energy infrastructure is less volatile than commodities
36:00 Inside Tortoise’s new AI infrastructure ETF (TCAI)
43:00 The rise of digital and electricity infrastructure plays
45:00 How Tortoise evaluates investments and valuations
49:00 The resilience and future expansion of the U.S. grid
52:00 Closing lessons: contrarian investing and energy’s importance

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing’s most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value investing evolves across three key phases—buying cheap, buying good, and learning to pay up. The conversation explores patience, conviction, dead money periods, family wealth stewardship, and how to think about value versus price in a noisy world.

Topics covered:
• The “cheapest dentist” analogy and why investors chase bargains
• The three phases of investor evolution: cheap, good, and exceptional
• Lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Graham on paying up for quality
• How to hold through drawdowns and dead money periods
• Why patience and conviction are the hardest investing skills
• Frugality, compounding, and lessons from his grandmother
• How long-term family investors think about wealth and stewardship
• The difference between price and value in modern markets
• How to know when cheap is too cheap and quality is worth paying for
• Why great investments are often simple to explain
• The story behind his Wall Street Journal essay “The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investments”

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction – The cheapest dentist analogy
03:00 Why investors love cheap stocks
07:00 The evolution from bargain hunter to quality investor
09:00 Examples from Ben Graham, Buffett, and Facebook
15:30 Conviction, drawdowns, and dead money
19:00 Judging success by business progress, not stock price
27:00 Lessons from grandma on value and frugality
31:00 How Buffett evolved from cheap to quality
45:00 Investing for future generations
49:00 Invisible wealth and stewardship
52:00 The value investor dilemma
58:00 Equal-weight vs market-cap indexes
59:00 Lessons for the average investor
1:02:00 How much research you really need
1:04:30 How his WSJ essay came to life and final takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today’s markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover the nuances of value, momentum, size, implementation, and how investors can think more effectively about long-term returns.

Topics covered:

• Matt’s journey from engineering to investing

• Lessons learned at DFA and the foundation of evidence-based investing

• Defining factors and what makes them credible

• The role of value, momentum, quality, and size in portfolios

• The challenges of intangibles and redefining value

• Large cap tech dominance, mean reversion, and whether the world has changed

• Factor timing, valuation spreads, and Cliff Asness’ “sin” framework

• How momentum can be integrated with value tilts

• Portfolio construction: combining factors vs sleeve approaches

• Implementation challenges for large vs small managers

• How Longview manages liquidity, turnover, and trading costs

• The potential impact of AI on factor investing

• Future opportunities in implementation alpha and ETF design

• Matt’s biggest investing belief most peers disagree with

• The key lesson he would teach the average investor

Timestamps:
00:00 Value vs returns and factor investing basics
03:00 From engineering and Boeing to investing
06:15 Time at DFA and lessons in evidence-based investing
07:30 What evidence-based investing really means
09:25 Defining factors and what makes them valid
12:00 Using value, profitability, size, and momentum
16:00 Large cap tech dominance and future returns
18:00 Mean reversion and whether the world has changed
20:00 How long does value need to struggle before it’s “dead”?
22:30 Should value be redefined for intangibles?
25:30 Intangibles, R&D, and why adjustments add noise
27:00 Value’s performance across economic cycles and migration
30:00 Interest rates, growth, and value performance
32:00 Factor timing and valuation spreads
34:15 The role of momentum in timing and implementation
35:00 How Longview applies passive-aggressive tilts
36:30 Combining factors vs sleeve approaches
39:00 How momentum is used in practice
41:30 Factor migration and average holding periods
43:00 The size premium and whether it still exists
44:30 The benefits of being nimble vs large fund families
47:30 Liquidity challenges in small cap value
52:00 The role of AI in investing
54:00 Where implementation adds the most alpha
55:30 One belief Matt holds that peers may disagree with
57:20 The one lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging, and more, offering a rare look inside the world of professional options and volatility trading.

Topics covered:

• Noel’s background: biochemistry, military, market making, HFT, hedge fund launch

• How markets have evolved since the 1990s

• Why volatility is the best source of market information

• Regime shift modeling and its role in strategy selection

• Using options for income and the trade-offs investors should understand

• Volatility harvesting and risk-defined short vol strategies

• The impact of zero DTE options on markets

• Dispersion trading and correlation dynamics

• Bond vol arbitrage and volatility surfaces

• Opportunistic trades like GameStop and meme stocks

• Tail hedging, its costs, and how to monetize hedges

• Lessons on flexibility, risk, and never being married to positions

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and Noel’s unique background
06:00 How markets have changed behind the scenes
07:00 Why volatility is the best information source
09:00 Regime shift model explained
19:00 Using options for income – benefits and risks
24:30 Volatility harvesting strategies
29:10 What the VIX does (and doesn’t) tell you
30:30 Zero DTE options and systemic risk
33:20 Dispersion trading explained
42:00 Bond vol arbitrage
45:00 Opportunistic trades: GameStop and beyond
51:30 Tail hedging and rebalancing
54:30 Lessons on flexibility and risk management

In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he’s learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles.

Topics covered in this episode:

• Why market valuations are harder to use today than in the past

• The impact of buybacks, margins, and technology on long-term comparisons

• Market concentration and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks

• Passive investing flows, investor behavior, and government backstops

• How AI compares to past technological innovations and its investment implications

• Value versus growth cycles and why U.S. tech has broken historical norms

• The lessons of the NASDAQ since 2000 and defining the long term for investors

• Personal experiences from the 2008 financial crisis and the power of compounding

• Diversification, gold’s surprising performance, and the case for international investing

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and market valuations
06:00 Structural changes and the role of buybacks
09:00 Margins, efficiency, and corporate dominance
12:00 Market concentration and the rise of mega-cap tech
14:00 Passive investing and household stock ownership
18:00 Government backstops and market resilience
23:00 Valuations as expectations vs. predictions
25:00 AI boom and capital allocation
29:00 Is this 1996 or 1999? Bubble comparisons
32:00 How AI may reshape investing and daily life
41:00 Investing in breakthrough technologies
43:00 Value versus growth cycles in the U.S. and abroad
46:00 Lessons from the NASDAQ and defining long-term investing
49:00 Compounding lessons from the 2008 financial crisis
53:00 Diversification, gold, and international performance

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves.

Topics covered in the episode:

• The job market’s pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisions

• Why recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systems

• The narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cycles

• Investor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability models

• How easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growth

• What “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOs

• The disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measures

• Gold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today’s environment

• The impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectations

• Valuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiples

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and market overview
02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks
09:00 Bull market without normal supports
17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies
23:55 Confidence and the misery index
29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy
34:00 Broadening of market participation
37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps
38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment
43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields
45:10 The role of gold in portfolios
50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets
54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins
59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth
01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples
01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways