After my last lecture series with Sarah Paine ended, I still had so many questions. I knew we’d only scratched the surface of Sarah’s scholarship, so I immediately invited her back for another series: she graciously agreed, and we’ll be releasing the results online over the coming weeks and months!

This first lecture is focused on the balance of power in East Asia at the turn of the 20th century. Specifically, how did Japan (population 47M) defeat China (400M) and Russia (130M) to become Asia's dominant power?

For me, the most interesting thing was that Japan's surprise attack on Port Arthur at the beginning of the Russo-Japanese War (1904) helps us understand why Japan might have thought Pearl Harbor would work.

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Sponsors

* Google’s Veo 3 helps us visualize the hypothetical scenarios that often come up during our interviews. Veo’s ability to generate both video and audio—all with incredible realism—makes it perfect for bringing our content to life. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting gemini.google.

* Hudson River Trading is one of the world's top quantitative trading firms. Responsible for around 15% of all U.S. equities trading volume, HRT powers their trades with cutting-edge deep learning models. Their in-house AI team does fundamental ML research and then applies it to some of the most competitive markets in the world. If you’re interested in joining them, you can learn more at hudsonrivertrading.com/dwarkesh.

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – Japan’s Meiji reforms

(00:14:44) – Trans-Siberian railway & Japan’s 3-year window for empire

(00:29:58) – The most important battle in the Russo-Japanese war

(00:48:38) – China’s implosion: imperialism, civil wars, and opium

(00:59:31) – Was Russia on track to dominate Asia?

(01:14:20) – Pearl Harbor (1941) vs surprise attack of Port Arthur (1904)

(01:34:03) – Why big countries still lose wars

(01:46:56) – Grand strategy for small countries

The Stephen Kotkin episode. Kotkin is arguably the world’s foremost expert on Joseph Stalin and has written a massive 2-volume biography on him (with a 3rd volume in the works).

No other individual had more of a profound impact on the 20th century than Stalin. He held the power of life and death over every single person across 11 time zones, and he killed tens of millions of people, utterly consumed by an ideology aimed at building paradise on Earth.

And, he was one half of the biggest and most consequential military confrontation in history (even if Hitler didn’t prove to be his match).

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Sponsors

* Lighthouse is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. All they need is your resume or LinkedIn profile to tell you which visas you’re most eligible for, and they’ll send you this eligibility document for free, no commitment required. Get started today at https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh.

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – Was the tsarist regime the lesser of 2 evils?

(00:23:45) – The peasants brought Lenin to power, then he enslaved them

(00:37:38) – Why did so many go along with enforced famine and the Great Terror?

(01:02:26) – Today’s leftist civil war

(01:13:01) – Doesn’t CCP deserve credit for China's growth?

(01:35:13) – Why didn't somebody just kill Stalin?

(01:52:45) – Overcoming the pathologies of communism with tech: USSR vs China

I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we haggle out timelines to AGI. Some guests think it’s 20 years away - others 2 years.

Here’s an audio version of where my thoughts stand as of June 2025. If you want to read the original post, you can check it out here.