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Deep Dive 2/9/26

Deep Dive 2/9/26

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Executive Summary

This weekend saw a transition from “Systemic Fragility” to a regime of “Calculated Stabilization.” The digital asset market has successfully absorbed two major shocks: a violent liquidation of leverage and the existential threat of a global trade war. Two fundamental mechanisms have established a floor for the market: a historic -11.16% Bitcoin network difficulty adjustment and the formalization of the United States-India Interim Trade Agreement.

Critically, the Bitcoin network has “healed” itself by purging inefficient mining operators, while geopolitical risk has shifted from immediate kinetic escalation to an “Entrenched Standoff.” While the market experienced $204 million in liquidations—predominantly short positions—institutional conviction remains high, evidenced by Bernstein Research characterizing the recent dip as the “weakest bear case in history” and MicroStrategy’s continued multi-million dollar accumulation. Emerging themes include the weaponization of crypto infrastructure by Sberbank in Russia and a tech-forward regulatory pivot in South Korea, signaling a move toward sovereign and corporate institutionalization.



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