Executive Summary

The Bitcoin market is at a critical inflection point, defined by a direct conflict between a new, bullish fundamental signal and a threatening bearish technical pattern. The narrative of institutional capitulation that dominated recent analysis has been inverted by a significant reversal in spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows. After a six-day streak of multi-billion-dollar withdrawals, data for November 6, 2025, confirms a net inflow of approximately $240 million, led by Fidelity and Ark Invest. This provides the first tangible support for the psychologically critical $100,000 price level.

However, this bullish flow reversal is being tested by the emergence of a “Bear Flag” pattern on the daily chart, a technical formation that projects a downside target of approximately $92,200. This target is reinforced by a confluence of other indicators, including an unfilled CME gap and historical price fractals, making the 90,000−94,000 range a significant support zone to monitor. The market’s immediate direction hinges on whether the new institutional buying pressure can absorb the technical selling pressure at the key 50-week Simple Moving Average, which currently acts as the macro bull market support line.

Adding to this complex picture, long-term institutional outlooks are diverging. JPMorgan has issued a new $170,000 target based on a gold-parity valuation model, while Ark Invest has revised its 2030 forecast down from 1.5 million to 1.2 million , citing competition from the now-$300 billion stablecoin market. The corporate treasury strategy is also facing scrutiny, as evidenced by the “Metaplanet Paradox,” where the company is taking on debt to buy more Bitcoin at the exact moment the market values its stock at less than its Bitcoin holdings—a direct consequence of ETF success cannibalizing the need for such corporate proxies.