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Deep Dive 11/5/2025

Deep Dive 11/5/2025

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 Executive SummaryOn November 5, 2025, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a significant, yet healthy, consolidation within its ongoing bull cycle. Trading at approximately 102,700 and broader macroeconomic risk-off sentiment. Despite this volatility, the market’s structure remains sound, indicating a transitional phase rather than a trend reversal.This briefing synthesizes 15 key developments across seven thematic areas: Price Analysis, On-Chain Metrics, Institutional Adoption, Macroeconomic Forecasts, Mining Infrastructure, Exchange Dynamics, and Network Fundamentals. Historical analysis suggests that drawdowns of 20-30% from all-time highs—such as the current correction from the October peak of 126,200. The $98,000 to $100,000 price range is identified as a key value zone, while future price action is expected to be influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve.Price and Technical AnalysisShort-term price action and technical indicators serve as a crucial barometer for market sentiment and liquidity. The past 24 hours have been marked by high intraday volatility, with prices ranging from a low of 98,900 to a high of 104,800. Trading volume surged by 15% to $83.5 billion, reflecting an accelerated unwinding of positions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart dropped to 32, nearing oversold territory that has historically preceded rebounds of 10-20% within 72 hours.Bitcoin Breaches $100,000 Psychological ThresholdBitcoin’s drop below the $100,000 level, a threshold last breached in June 2025, represents a significant test of market resilience. This price point has functioned as a strong support level, with order book data from Deribit and Binance showing 40% of exchange orders clustered around it. The breach, which erased 7% of weekly gains, was part of an 18% correction from the October 5 all-time high and was exacerbated by cascading stop-loss triggers.• On-Chain Impact: Glassnode data reveals a 12% increase in exchange inflows, indicating that spot holders were moving assets to seek liquidity.• Institutional Reaction: ETF outflows remained relatively contained at approximately $570 million, less than 1% of total assets under management, suggesting that institutional conviction remains largely intact.• Strategic Implication: The event flushed out retail leverage, creating a more stable foundation. Historical data from the 2017 and 2021 cycles shows that similar dips have often provided tactical entry points, yielding significant returns over a three-month period.$1.7 Billion Liquidation Wave ExplainedA liquidation cascade of $1.7 billion occurred over an eight-hour period, primarily affecting overextended long positions. This event was correlated with a 1.5% dip in the Nasdaq, as a sell-off in the tech sector applied pressure to risk assets.• Derivatives Data: According to Coinglass, 77% of liquidated contracts were perpetual futures on major exchanges like Binance and OKX, with average leverage ratios around 8x.• Market Impact: The wave pruned speculative excess, causing open interest to fall by 12% to $52 billion and normalizing funding rates to a neutral -0.01%.• Investor Takeaway: This event highlights the risks of leverage, as eToro metrics indicate that leveraged plays amplified losses for 55% of retail traders. It validates strategies such as diversifying into BTC-linked ETFs (which exhibit a 0.7 beta to the spot price) and using options for hedging.Key Technical Supports TestedBitcoin’s price tested the crucial 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $103,000, a level that has served as support in 80% of prior corrections. The price successfully bounced off this dynamic support, invalidating a potential head-and-shoulders pattern.• Support and Resistance: Below the 50-week SMA, the next major support lies at the 200-week SMA, around 82,000.• Momentum Indicators: The MACD histogram is flipping positive, suggesting that downside momentum may be limited.• Strategic Guidance: The successful test of the 50-week SMA preserves the 200-day uptrend channel and affirms the predictive power of technical analysis, guiding investors toward a more cautious 60/40 BTC-stablecoin mix during periods of uncertainty.On-Chain Metrics and Holder BehaviorOn-chain data offers a transparent view of network activity and holder conviction. The last 24 hours saw a 10% increase in active addresses to 950,000, which, combined with high transfer volumes, suggests deliberate asset repositioning rather than panic selling.Long-Term Holders Unload $45 Billion in BTCAccording to Arkham Intelligence, Long-Term Holders (LTHs)—wallets dormant for over 155 days—have distributed as much as $45 billion in BTC over the past month. This cohort, which controls 75% of the circulating supply, contributed 60% of the downside pressure in the last 24 hours.• Absorption: Approximately 70% of these flows were absorbed by ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT, indicating strong institutional demand.• Market...
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