Executive Summary

The market indecision that characterized previous analysis has been decisively resolved to the upside, driven by two primary catalysts. First, a strong technical defense of the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a weekly candle close above the critical $104,500 level provided a structural foundation for the price. Second, this technical victory was compounded by a major macroeconomic shift, as a procedural vote in the U.S. Senate signaled an end to the 40-day government shutdown, triggering a broad “risk-on” rally across global markets.

This dual catalyst propelled Bitcoin’s price by approximately 4% to reclaim the $106,000 level. However, this rally is occurring under contradictory conditions, creating a “wall of worry.” On-chain data reveals significant institutional selling, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording one of their heaviest outflow weeks at approximately $1.2 billion. Furthermore, Long-Term Holders are increasing their distribution (selling) into a market where aggregate demand from new buyers has contracted into a “red zone.” This suggests the rally is fragile, driven more by a thinness in sell-side liquidity than by broad, new demand.

Key structural developments include the landmark launch of CFTC-regulated “Continuous Futures” by Cboe on November 10, creating an institutional-grade, onshore alternative to offshore perpetual swaps. Concurrently, the Bank of England has proposed a highly favorable regulatory framework for systemic stablecoins, incentivizing issuance by allowing up to 60% of reserves to be held in UK government debt. The forward outlook is now a “cautious rally,” with the primary conflict being bullish technical and macro momentum versus bearish on-chain demand and whale distribution data.