Ever heard of cognitive dissonance? That thing a psychology lecturer might have explained to you once upon a time, likely using the same UFO cult example everyone else uses. Well, a new paper by Thomas Kelly suggests that the UFO cult example might have been ever so slightly oversold.

Kelly's archival work suggests that the researchers didn't just observe the cult as reported. Instead, they infiltrated it, faked supernatural experiences, assumed quasi-leadership roles, and then wrote up the results as if the group had spontaneously doubled down on their failed prophecy, which they had not. Because the leader recanted, and the group fell apart shortly after the failed prophecy. Minor details.

Matt and Chris discuss this paper, a 2024 multilab replication, and some other papers by Kelly, considering the ever-reliable tendency of researchers to find exactly what they are looking for.

It's cognitive dissonance all the way down, folks.

The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 10 minutes).

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Decoding Academia 34: When Prophecy Fails Debunked?

00:00 Introduction

02:04 Cognitive Dissonance Theory

06:41 Classic lab evidence: effort justification & the ‘severe initiation’ study

08:33 When Prophecy Fails: The Original Account

10:54 The debunking: archival evidence, misconduct claims, and ethical red flags

20:22 Replication reality check: multi-lab results and ‘strong vs weak’ dissonance

31:40 Beyond one case: survivorship bias, failed prophecies, and early Christianity parallels

35:51 Christianity as Historical Anomaly or Cognitive Dissonance Exemplar?

41:48 Thomas Kelly: Interesting biosafety takes and a possible Christian lens

45:43 The importance of seeking for disconfirming evidence

50:23 Conspiracy-theory dynamics & narrative elaboration

56:30 Classical Psychological Theories and Personal Motivations

01:03:07 Steps that can be taken to reduce biases

01:05:01 Stay tentative, check evidence, and don’t pick sides too fast

01:06:30 A lesson from Scott Alexander!

1. Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford University Press.
2. Festinger, L., Riecken, H. W., & Schachter, S. (1956). When prophecy fails. University of Minnesota Press.
3. Festinger, L., & Carlsmith, J. M. (1959). Cognitive consequences of forced compliance. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 58(2), 203–210. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0041593 (The original induced-compliance/$1/$20 study)
4. Kelly, T. (2026). Debunking "When Prophecy Fails." Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, 62(1), e70043. https://doi.org/10.1002/jhbs.70043
5. Kelly, T. (2025). Failed prophecies are fatal. International Journal for the Study of New Religions, 14(1), 48–71. https://doi.org/10.1558/ijsnr.33085
6. Aronson, E., & Mills, J. (1959). The effect of severity of initiation on...

Cult Season rumbles on as Chris and Matt expand their minds in an attempt to absorb the cosmic insights of spiritual influencer and alleged cult leader Teal Swan (born Mary Teal Bosworth, 1984). Our intrepid hosts explore her recent appearance on the Just Tap In podcast with Emilio “starchild” Ortiz — a beanie-wearing vessel of pure credulity, lobbing softball metaphysical questions gently into the astral winds.

The topic covered is ostensibly “Major 2026 Predictions” but this is really just an entry point for discussion of the ancient origins of AI, multiversal astral contract negotiations, and, of course, the urgent need to discuss masculinity before we spiritually implode.

You will learn insights, such as: how AI will eliminate ageing, guide us to SOURCE, amplify our shadow, and corrupt and deceive us ... all at once. Aliens and other cosmic beings are deeply concerned with and also not really all that bothered with humanity. Also, pop stars are apparently set to receive divine instructions to stabilise the collective psyche in 2026. And how we are all trapped in a planetary pressure cooker that will run at least until 2030. Teal is trying not to scare us, but it doesn’t look great (though it might also be great and lead to utopia).

Expect astral board meetings, sensemaking redefinitions of “power” and “love”, warnings about the painful sacrifices required to join Teal’s “conscious community”, and some distinctly uncomfortable talk about opening gates and reframing mother–son dynamics. As ever, Matt and Chris attempt to decode the elevated vagueness, semantic gliding, and cosmic scaling of very earthly anxieties.

All hail SOURCE!

Decoding Content

1. Just Tap In Podcast #260: "Teal Swan – Why 2026 Is a Psychological & Relational Tipping Point for Humanity"

Links

1. The Gateway (Gizmodo Podcast, 2018) - Six-part investigative series by Jennings Brown
2. The Deep End (Freeform/Hulu, 2022) - Four-part docuseries by Jon Kasbe
3. Mormon Stories #1607: Growing Up with Teal Swan - Diana Hansen Ribera - Interview with Teal's childhood best friend
4. Mormon Stories #1328-1331: Leaving Mormonism to Join Teal Swan's Cult - Jared Dobson
5. BBC- Teal Swan: The woman encouraging her followers to visualise death
6. Scam Goddess: The Culty Con of Teal Swan w/ Sarah Marshall

In this Decoding Academia episode, we take a look at a 2025 paper by Daria Ovsyannikova, Victoria Olden, and Mickey Inzlicht, asking a question that might make some people uncomfortable/angry, specifically, are AI-generated responses perceived as more empathetic than those written by actual humans?

We walk through the design in detail (including why this is a genuinely severe test), hand out deserved open-science brownie points, and discuss why AI seems to excel particularly when responding to negative or distress-laden prompts. Along the way, Chris reflects on his unsettlingly intense relationship with Google’s semi-sentient customer-service agent “Bubbles,” and we ask whether infinite patience, maximal effort, and zero social awkwardness might be doing most of the work here.

This is not a paper about replacing therapists, outsourcing friendship, or mass-producing compassion at scale. It is a careful demonstration that fluent, effortful, emotionally calibrated text is often enough to convince people they are being understood, which might explain some of the appeal of the Gurus.

Source

Ovsyannikova, D., de Mello, V. O., & Inzlicht, M. (2025). Third-party evaluators perceive AI as more compassionate than expert humans. Communications Psychology, 3(1), 4.

Decoding Academia 34: Empathetic AIs?

01:40 Introducing the Paper

10:29 Study Methodology

14:21 Chris's meaningful relationship with YouTube AI agent Bubbles

16:23 Open Science Brownie Points

17:50 Empathetic Prompt Engineering: Humans and AIs

21:17 Study 1 and 2

31:35 Study 3 and 4

37:00 Study Conclusions

42:27 Severe Hypothesis Testing

45:11 Seeking out Disconfirming Evidence

47:06 Why do AIs do better on negative prompts?

54:48 Final Thoughts