Deciding with Confidence: How to Avoid Overconfidence & Make Smarter Choices with Don Moore | Ep.178 REPLAY cover art

Deciding with Confidence: How to Avoid Overconfidence & Make Smarter Choices with Don Moore | Ep.178 REPLAY

Deciding with Confidence: How to Avoid Overconfidence & Make Smarter Choices with Don Moore | Ep.178 REPLAY

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 Are you as good at making decisions as you think you are? 🤔In this replay of the Decidedly Podcast, we sit down with repeat guest Don Moore, UC Berkeley professor and author of Perfectly Confident and Decision Leadership, to unpack the hidden dangers of overconfidence and overprecision in business, investing, parenting, and everyday life.You’ll learn:✅ What the Dunning–Kruger effect really means (and how to spot it in yourself)✅ Why most people are too sure about their decisions — and what that costs them✅ How probabilistic thinking can sharpen your choices in business and beyond✅ The difference between confidence that fuels success vs. confidence that blinds you✅ Real-world examples: from parenting choices to market predictions to AI hallucinationsIf you’ve ever wondered why smart people still make bad decisions — and how to avoid being one of them — this conversation is packed with actionable wisdom. ⁠⁠SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE WEEKLY NEWSLETTER⁠⁠CHAPTERS00:00 – Intro: Defeating bad decision-making in life & business02:00 – Why new parents are overconfident05:30 – The Dunning-Kruger effect in parenting and beyond07:40 – What is over-precision, and why does it matter?12:20 – The dangers of overconfidence in business and investing16:55 – Why successful people struggle with decision-making19:20 – The power of having language for decision-making biases21:45 – How thinking in probabilities leads to better choices24:05 – Market predictions, uncertainty, and decision paralysis26:20 – How hobbies and competition keep us humble28:50 – The behaviors that make people more (or less) overconfident31:05 – The surprising gift of criticism33:25 – Parenting, teenage rebellion, and overconfidence36:50 – Overconfidence in parenting decisions39:10 – Avoiding regret and learning from imperfect decisions41:20 – Why most people misinterpret their financial wins43:45 – Is AI overconfident? The risk of machine-generated certainty46:00 – The problem with certainty in AI, investing, and life48:30 – Why demanding 100% certainty keeps you stuck50:30 – What Sanger has learned from hosting Decidedly55:10 – The importance of embracing uncertainty in business and life57:35 – Don’s top decision-making tip for business owners57:47 – Where to connect with Don Moore58:16 – Key Takeaways59:29 – Message from the Producer CONNECT WITH US⁠⁠www.decidedlypodcast.com⁠⁠⁠Watch this episode on YouTube⁠Subscribe on ⁠⁠YouTube⁠Join us on ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠: @decidedlypodcastJoin us on ⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠Shawn’s ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠: @shawn_d_smithSanger’s ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠: @sangersmith SANGER’S BOOK:⁠⁠A Life Rich with Significance: Transforming Your Wealth to Meaningful Impact⁠⁠ SHAWN’S BOOK: ⁠⁠Plateau Jumping: What to Change When Change Is What You Want⁠⁠ MAKING A FINANCIAL DECISION?At ⁠⁠Decidedly Wealth Management⁠⁠, we focus on decision-making as the foundational element of success, in our effort to empower families to purposefully apply their wealth to fulfill their values and build a thriving legacy. LEARN MORE: ⁠⁠www.decidedlywealth.com⁠⁠ CONNECT WITH DON MOOREDon’s Faculty Website: ⁠https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/⁠ Don’s Lab Website: ⁠https://learnmoore.org/⁠ X: @donandrewmoore LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/⁠ Books: ⁠https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B083M5M6X4/allbooks?ingress=0&visitId=54bc4249-8552-4de4-bbed-b4ac6d41d5ec&ref_=ap_rdr⁠ Don Moore holds the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. His research interests include overconfidence, including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth.  He is only occasionally overconfident.
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