On this episode of Data Driven, we’re shuffling up some probability, statistics, and a bit of Las Vegas magic with Dr. Michael Orkin—a renowned statistician, data scientist, and former advisor to casino odds makers. Hosts Andy Leonard, Frank La Vigne, and BAILeY dig into the fascinating numbers behind games of chance, uncovering why the house almost always wins and how our brains are wired to find patterns—sometimes where none exist.

Whether you’re a data enthusiast, a casual gambler wondering why your lucky streak never lasts, or just curious about how randomness, probability, and big jackpots work, this episode has you covered. Dr. Orkin breaks down concepts like the house edge, expected value, card counting, the allure (and statistical pitfalls) of lottery tickets, and the psychology driving “hot” and “due” gambling strategies. Plus, he weighs in on lightning strikes, Black Swan events, correlation and causation, and the curious human habit of seeing connections in random outcomes.

So, get ready for a lively conversation that reminds us data is everywhere—especially where stakes are high and luck seems just out of reach. Whether you’re here for probability puns, real-world math, or the stories Vegas doesn’t want you to know, this is one episode you won’t want to miss!

The Story of Chance https://amzn.to/45qOe8x

Dr Mike's Substack https://drmikeorkin.substack.com/

00:00 Casino House Edge Explained

08:54 "Random Chance and Unlikely Events"

12:03 Justifying Buying Lottery Tickets

16:58 "SBF: Crypto King Unraveled"

26:34 Lightning Strike Probability Calculation Issues

32:26 Average Beyond Desk Boundaries

33:26 "Defining Accident Prone"

39:31 Misjudging Odds with Normal Curve

45:50 Avoiding Lightning Strikes: Bay Area

55:11 Casino Mind Games Experience

56:20 Roulette Betting Strategies: Apophenia

01:03:33 "Dr. Orkin's Website & Substack"

01:07:19 "Probability and the House Edge"

Welcome to another episode of Data Driven, where we delve deep into the crossroads of data, technology, and the ever-shifting world of geopolitics. In this packed episode, hosts Frank La Vigne and Bailey are joined by Christopher Nuland, AI technical marketing manager at Red Hat, for a candid, no-holds-barred discussion on the newly released America's AI Action Plan.

Together, they tackle everything from the resurgence of Cold War tensions in the AI arena to the complexities of “AI sovereignty” and what it really means for the US, China, and the rest of the world. Expect spirited debates about EU’s place in the global AI race, the real-world implications of chip supply chain disruptions, and the heated rhetoric around workforce security in an era when AI is starting to replace traditional jobs.

The conversation weaves through existential questions—can AI ever truly reason, or are we just witnessing the rise of superpowered “spreadsheet goblins?”—and gets hands-on with the very real risks (and opportunities) of rolling out LLMs in everyday workplaces. Plus, the team touches on power-hungry data centers, potential impacts on the job market, and even finds time to swap sci-fi references from The Expanse to Ghost in the Shell to help paint a picture of what our AI-dominated future might look like.

Buckle up for a dense, dynamic, and dangerously nerdy journey into the world of AI policy, technology, and what it means for all of us. Let’s get into it!

00:00 AI Geopolitics & America's Action Plan

08:14 EU's Role in Tech Hierarchy

14:10 "US Focus: Securing AI Workforce"

20:40 Supply Chain Security in Software

24:24 Politicians' Technical Proficiency Limits

27:19 AI Sovereignty and Cultural Values

33:52 CHIPS Act: Innovation and Expansion Hopes

38:11 "AI Vulnerability: Patch Attacks"

47:58 Maryland Power Line Controversy

50:09 "AI Impact on Jobs & UBI"

55:47 Techno Feudalism Perspective

01:04:41 "AI Sovereignty: A Geopolitical Chess Match"

In today’s conversation, hosts BAILeY and Frank La Vigne sit down with Dr. Alan Becker, co-founder and CEO of E Self AI and former co-founder of Voca AI, which was acquired by Snap in 2020. Dr. Becker brings a powerhouse combination of academic expertise and entrepreneurial experience, with a PhD in machine learning and AI and research spanning voice, NLP, and computer vision.

This episode dives into how E Self AI is transforming human-machine interaction by moving beyond chat and voice—introducing real-time face-to-face video AI assistants. Imagine smarter digital avatars that don’t just talk but engage visually and contextually, delivering personalized tutoring, streamlined customer service, and even real estate tours.

Along the way, the conversation goes deep: they discuss the pyramid of engagement from text to voice to fully visual interaction, and what the next generation of AI means for education, accessibility, and the way we connect with each other. Dr. Becker offers insights from his research on multimodal AI and reflects on the very philosophical questions these new technologies raise—like authenticity, connection, and the future of what we call “real.”

Whether you’re curious about the engineering magic behind lifelike avatars, the ethical dilemmas of AI interviews, or how technology is reshaping the learning experience, this episode is a fascinating look at where artificial intelligence—and humanity—are headed next.

Strap in, update your firmware, and get ready to stay Data Driven.

ESelf Website: https://www.eself.ai/

00:00 "Exploring AI with Dr. Becker"

05:49 Accessibility Drives eSelf's Innovation Journey

06:58 Advanced Voice Interaction Evolution

11:33 Personalized Tutoring via Multimodal AI

14:33 AI in Sci-Fi and Real Life

16:21 Understanding Users Via Encoding Algorithms

19:44 Digital Twin to AI Avatars Transition

23:14 AI Misunderstandings Due to Background Noise

27:19 AI's Role in Job Interviews

32:36 Nvidia Tool Alters Eye Contact

35:15 AI-Human Communication Blur

38:31 Reality and Gaming Perception Debate

41:51 Influencer Reality vs. Perception

44:45 Identity and Authenticity Dilemma

48:30 "Influencer's Authenticity vs. Flashiness"

53:22 Fake Celeb Math Explainer TikToks

56:10 "AI's Future: Human-Like Interaction"

57:07 Data-Driven Focus