In This Episode:

• Why Treasuries are having their strongest October in years.
• The significance of the negative stock–bond correlation and what it signals for portfolios.
• Inflation and labor market trends supporting potential Fed rate cuts.
• How gold, palladium, and other metals fit into a late-cycle allocation.
• Our portfolio adjustments: longer-duration Treasuries, selective pro-cyclical tilts, and risk management strategies.
• Why loose financial conditions continue to support speculation — and how we’re positioning for the next phase of the cycle.

Resources & Links:

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In this episode:

Key findings from the Q3 2025 Market Intelligence Report

Why asset dispersion is narrowing and what that means for diversification

Where our models see strength—select metals, emerging markets, and duration

The implications of a neutral dollar and extended U.S. equities

How we’re positioning portfolios for selective exposure and flexibility

Referenced in this episode:

Dantes Outlook Market Intelligence Report (Q3 2025)

Substack: https://dantesoutlook.substack.com

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Topics Covered:

– Introduction: A new perspective from Riyadh and Dubai

– First impressions of the Middle East’s financial centers

– Inside the CMT Global Investment Summit: sentiment, structure, and surprises

– Regional vs. U.S. focus: where investors see opportunity

– The Dantes Outlook framework: mapping the market and business cycles

– Challenging assumptions about the Middle East’s global role

– Key insights investors should be watching

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• Abdulelah’s background and pathway to technical analysis
• Mentorship, the CMT Association, and Riyadh chapter goals
• Growth opportunities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
• Cyclicality, sector exposure, and local vs. global dynamics
• Using relative strength and market breadth in regional analysis
• Adjusting time frames and macro considerations
• Vision for growing a regional professional network
• Looking ahead to the CMT conferences in Riyadh and Dubai

Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Email damanick@dantesoutlook to request a meeting.

• Why copper/gold and silver/copper ratios may be sending different signals this cycle
• Positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting in rates and FX
• Duration strategy during rate-cutting cycles
• Active vs. passive performance in the bond market

Elena Zeng on Chinese equities:

• Hong Kong momentum rebound vs. mainland lag
• Relative strength of China vs. EM equities
• Domestic liquidity, share buybacks, and foreign inflows
• Why China remains a tactical allocation, not a core holding

Visit us at DantesOutlook.com

Email Damanick@DantesOutlook.com to request a meeting

Topics Covered

• Setting the global context: the $7 trillion daily FX market and its drivers
• The advantages of technical analysis in high-liquidity markets
• Rule-based systems and algos: strategies for 24/5 trading
• Key FX trading approaches: trend, mean reversion, breakouts, session-based, and news-driven
• Dubai’s financial rise: DIFC, regulation, and the time zone advantage
• The role of the CMT Association and Women in Technical Analysis in shaping the future of finance

Upcoming Events

• September 28 – CMT Riyadh Community Meeting: a premier forum for market professionals across Saudi Arabia and beyond.
  • Register here
• September 30–October 2 – CMT Global Investment Summit in Dubai: an elite gathering of fund managers, strategists, and investors decoding cross-asset trends and innovations in global markets.
  • Register here
  • Women in TA dinner

Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

U.S. Valuations: Deutsche Bank research shows that historically, high valuations have led to weaker 10-year returns, raising questions about long-term U.S. equity performance

AI and the Mag-7: The current rally is highly concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks, creating a potential disconnect between pricing and fundamentals.

Global Equities & Currencies: State Street reports that the 9% year-to-date decline in the U.S. dollar has boosted international returns, with Europe benefiting most

Sector Leadership in Europe: BlackRock highlights resilience in banks, aerospace & defense, luxury, and semiconductors, while remaining cautious on healthcare

Diversification: AQR stresses the importance of liquid diversifiers, like trend-following strategies, in reducing risk and improving long-term returns

Portfolio Insights:

• Dantes Outlook Alpha Capture ETF Model Portfolio gained 2.33% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 30 bps.
• Key contributors: cyclical sectors, emerging markets, inflation beneficiaries (INFL), and Eurozone/U.S. bond exposure.
• Year-to-date results: Moderate +6.54%, Aggressive +32.67%, Conservative +9.45%

Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com to learn more.

Email damanick@dantesoutlook.com to request a meeting.

Rates & Fed Policy: Markets are overly optimistic on rate cuts; inflation remains sticky, keeping the Fed cautious (DeepMacro).

Equity Positioning: Systematic funds are heavily tilted toward equities, with allocations at or near record highs (MenthorQ).

China Equities: Narrowing gap between H-shares and A-shares signals opportunity; liquidity and household cash provide strong support (HSBC).

Market Breadth: Short-term indicators are overbought, but long-term breadth remains healthy (Dantes Outlook).

Fixed Income: Attractive yields unlikely to return to pre-pandemic lows; belly of the curve (5–6 year maturities) offers a balance of income and rate risk (Vanguard).

Municipals & Credit: Municipal bonds and investment-grade credit stand out as high-quality, inexpensive options.

Equities: Active managers struggle against the Magnificent Seven; indexing provides a strong foundation, while Industrials, Financials, and Healthcare offer selective momentum opportunities (Morningstar, Dantes Outlook).

Takeaway: Stay disciplined, revisit bond allocations, and avoid overstretching for yield or risk.