Episodes

  • 2026.2.13 US Market Close | Tech stocks drop on hot CPI report as small caps surge

    2026.2.13 US Market Close | Tech stocks drop on hot CPI report as small caps surge
    Feb 13 2026
    On February 13, the US stock market closed mixed as a hotter-than-expected January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report led to a divergence among the major indices. Fading hopes for a near-term rate cut put pressure on tech stocks, while a resilient economy fueled a rally in small-cap stocks, creating a clear split in the market. Major Index Performance - Dow Jones: +0.1% - Edged higher despite weakness in the tech sector. - S&P 500: +0.05% - Closed with a slight gain. - Nasdaq: -0.22% - Declined as rate cut expectations receded following a 0.3% monthly core CPI reading that topped forecasts. - Russell 2000: +1.18% - Surged as capital rotated from big tech into small-cap stocks. Key Market Movers - Hot CPI Delays Rate Cut Hopes: The January Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding market forecasts of 0.2%. This fueled concerns that the Fed might postpone rate cuts until June or later. - Tech vs. Small-Cap Divergence: While the Nasdaq fell under the weight of interest rate concerns, the Russell 2000 jumped 1.18%, indicating a shift of funds into overlooked small-cap stocks supported by a robust economy. - A 'Fundamentals-Driven' Market Takes Hold: With the market's overall direction uncertain, investors are increasingly focusing on individual company earnings. This led to extreme divergence in stock performance, with companies reporting strong earnings surging while those with disappointing results plunged. - Microsoft's Growth vs. Regulatory Risks: The company showed strong growth, with its cloud division surging 39% on AI demand. However, an FTC antitrust investigation and a $28.9 billion tax dispute weighed on the stock. Key Stock Movements - Applied Materials (AMAT): Surged over 13% after delivering earnings and guidance that beat market expectations, driven by strong demand for AI chips. - Rivian (RIVN): Soared more than 20% after announcing a vehicle delivery forecast for the year that surpassed market projections. - Pinterest (PINS): Plunged over 12% after reporting Q4 revenue that missed estimates and providing disappointing Q1 guidance. - Microsoft (MSFT): Fell 0.74%, closing slightly lower as the company's strong AI-driven growth was offset by concerns over the FTC's antitrust probe.
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    17 mins
  • 2026.2.12 US Market Close | Markets fall on AI-driven tech sell-off and CPI anxiety

    2026.2.12 US Market Close | Markets fall on AI-driven tech sell-off and CPI anxiety
    Feb 12 2026
    On February 12, US markets saw a broad decline as major indices fell, driven by spreading fears that AI technology could disrupt certain industries and caution ahead of key inflation data. A sell-off centered on tech stocks led to a significant increase in market volatility. Major Indices - Dow Jones: Down 1.3% - Declined amid the AI-driven tech sell-off and caution before the CPI release. - S&P 500: Down over 1.5% - Weakness across the tech sector and heightened market anxiety. - Nasdaq: Plunged over 2% - Fears that AI could disrupt existing industries drove the tech sell-off. Key Market Movers - Fears of AI Disruption: Concerns grew that AI could replace business models and jobs in specific sectors, causing stocks in logistics, software, and commercial real estate to plunge. - Caution Ahead of CPI Data: Ahead of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, the market was pressured by worries that a stall in disinflation could push back expectations for the Fed's rate cuts. - Shift to a Stock-Picker's Market: Analysts noted that the market is entering a phase of re-evaluating AI's impact, shifting from indiscriminate rallies to a focus on the viability of individual companies. - MicroStrategy's Debt Risk: Despite the potential for additional Bitcoin purchases, MicroStrategy's stock was weighed down by its highly leveraged strategy and the looming 'wall of debt' risk starting in 2027. Top Movers - C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW): Tumbled over 14% - The stock was hit hard by growing concerns that AI could replace freight brokerage services. - CBRE Group (CBRE): Plunged over 8% - This followed analysis suggesting that AI advancements could reduce demand for office space and replace real estate brokerage services. - MicroStrategy (MSTR): Down over 3.7% - The potential for a liquidity crisis inherent in its leveraged Bitcoin investment strategy came into focus.
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    14 mins
  • 2026.2.11 US Market Close | Market diverges on earnings as strong jobs report weighs

    2026.2.11 US Market Close | Market diverges on earnings as strong jobs report weighs
    Feb 11 2026
    On February 11, US markets closed mixed as a stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Amid broad market pressure, it was a day of sharp divergence between stocks with clear growth drivers, like those in Artificial Intelligence (AI), and companies that reported weak earnings. Major Indices - S&P 500: Down 0.005% - Finished virtually flat as pressure from the strong jobs report was offset by individual company earnings. - Dow Jones: Down 0.13% - Edged lower amid concerns over delayed Fed rate cuts. - Nasdaq 100: Up 0.29% - Closed higher, led by AI-related tech stocks in a market driven by earnings differentiation. Key Issues - Stronger-than-expected jobs report: Nonfarm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, significantly surpassing the forecast of 70,000. The higher-than-anticipated growth in average hourly earnings also dampened hopes for an early rate cut from the Fed. - Sharp divergence based on earnings: Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, a stock-picker's market emerged where companies with proven growth, such as AI stocks, surged, while those with disappointing earnings and outlooks plunged. - Rate cut expectations recede: Following the strong employment data, the probability of a March rate cut plummeted to below 8%, with the market now pricing in the first cut for June or later. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to around 4.17%. - Focus shifts to upcoming key data: Market attention is now turning to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on the 13th and the FOMC minutes release on the 18th, which could lead to increased volatility. Key Stocks - Vertiv (VRT): Surged over 24% after raising its full-year 2026 guidance, citing strong demand from AI. - Lyft (LYFT): Plunged nearly 17% after reporting an unexpected operating loss and providing a weak first-quarter forecast. - Cloudflare (NET): Rose more than 5% on the back of a fourth-quarter earnings beat and a positive full-year outlook. - Mattel (MAT): Tumbled nearly 25% after a significant earnings miss, with holiday shopping season results falling far short of expectations.
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    16 mins
  • 2026.2.10 US Market Close | Market diverges on mixed earnings and signs of slowing consumption

    2026.2.10 US Market Close | Market diverges on mixed earnings and signs of slowing consumption
    Feb 10 2026
    The US stock market closed mixed on February 10, as signs of a consumer slowdown clashed with divergent corporate earnings forecasts. The session was marked by significant divergence across sectors and individual stocks, with investors focusing more on future guidance than on past results. Major Indices - Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 0.1%, hitting a new all-time high, supported by gains in some industrial and healthcare stocks. - Nasdaq Composite: Fell 0.59%, weighed down by major tech stocks amid concerns over conservative corporate outlooks. - S&P 500: Declined 0.33%, dragged lower by weakness in the tech sector. Key Issues - Consumer Slowdown Concerns: Pre-market retail sales data came in unexpectedly flat, highlighting concerns about weakening consumer sentiment. - Disappointing Corporate Guidance: Companies like Coca-Cola and Lyft weighed on the market by issuing conservative annual forecasts, despite reporting solid Q4 earnings. - Big Tech Weakness: Major tech stocks, including Nvidia and Alphabet, fell in tandem as broader market caution spread, even without specific negative catalysts. - Salesforce Volatility: The stock experienced significant intraday volatility, caught between optimism for its AI initiatives and concerns over increased competition and new business risks. - Awaiting Key Economic Data: Investors remained on the sidelines, anticipating the release of this week's Jobs Report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Key Stocks - Coca-Cola (KO): Fell 1.49%. Although Q4 earnings beat expectations, the stock declined after the company issued 2026 annual guidance that fell short of market consensus. - Lyft (LYFT): Plunged over 14% in after-hours trading. The company provided a weak Q1 profit forecast and announced an unexpected operating loss for 2025, severely chilling investor sentiment. - Nvidia (NVDA): Dropped 0.79%, impacted by weakening sentiment across the tech sector due to signs of a consumer slowdown and downbeat forecasts from other companies. - Alphabet (GOOGL): Slid 1.77% amid profit-taking and risk-off moves in big tech stocks. - Salesforce (CRM): Gained 0.77%. The stock initially surged on AI optimism following a competitor's strong earnings but gave back most of its gains to close slightly higher amid concerns about intensifying competition.
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    12 mins
  • 2026.2.4 US Market Close | Nasdaq drops while Dow climbs on mixed corporate earnings

    2026.2.4 US Market Close | Nasdaq drops while Dow climbs on mixed corporate earnings
    Feb 4 2026
    On February 4th, the US stock market saw a significant divergence among the major indices, driven by mixed corporate earnings reports. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell sharply on a weak outlook from AMD, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to close higher, buoyed by strong results from Eli Lilly. This highlighted a clear market divergence based on individual company performance. Major Indices - Dow Jones: +0.53% - The index was led higher by strength in healthcare stocks, including Eli Lilly. - Nasdaq: -1.5% - Concerns over AMD's future revenue forecast dampened investor sentiment across the tech sector. - S&P 500: -0.5% - Closed lower amid a mix of weakness in tech stocks and strength in value sectors like healthcare. Key Market Themes - A Stark Divide Between Tech and Value: Tech stocks, led by AMD, fell on concerns about future growth. In contrast, value stocks in sectors like healthcare and industrials, spearheaded by Eli Lilly, rose on the back of solid earnings, indicating a rotational trend in the market. - Future Guidance Outweighs Current Earnings: The market reacted more sensitively to forward-looking guidance than to current results. AMD plunged despite reporting a solid Q4, as its Q1 forecast fell short of expectations. - Geopolitical Risks Surrounding AMD Highlighted: The sharp drop in AMD's stock was also fueled by concerns over its supply chain reliance on a single manufacturer, TSMC, and potential impacts from stricter US export controls on China, which accounts for 22.4% of its total revenue. Key Movers - AMD (AMD): Plunged over 17% - Although Q4 earnings beat estimates, the company's forward revenue guidance disappointed investors, triggering a sell-off. - Eli Lilly (LLY): Surged more than 10% - The pharmaceutical giant posted Q4 earnings that surpassed market expectations and provided a strong full-year profit forecast, driven by high demand for its weight-loss drugs. - GE HealthCare (GEHC): Rose nearly 5% - The company reported solid earnings, contributing to the overall strength in the healthcare sector.
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    17 mins
  • 2026.2.3 US Market Close | Nasdaq reverses lower on mixed Big Tech earnings

    2026.2.3 US Market Close | Nasdaq reverses lower on mixed Big Tech earnings
    Feb 3 2026
    On February 3rd, the US stock market saw a mixed session driven by diverging Q4 earnings reports from Big Tech companies. Notably, an earnings shock from PayPal dampened investor sentiment across the tech sector, leading to a significant drop in the Nasdaq Composite. Major Indices - Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.34% - Closed lower amid mixed corporate earnings. - S&P 500: Down 0.84% - Weighed down by weakness in tech stocks like PayPal. - Nasdaq Composite: Down 1.43% - Led the decline as the PayPal shock triggered a sell-off in the software and fintech sectors. Key Market Movers - A Tale of Two Techs: Palantir vs. PayPal: A stark contrast was seen within the tech sector. Palantir surged on better-than-expected earnings driven by strong demand for its AI platform. In contrast, PayPal plunged following a disappointing annual forecast and news of a CEO change, highlighting the sharp divergence in stock performance based on earnings. - PayPal Shock Hits the Software Sector: PayPal's over 20% plunge sparked broader concerns across the fintech and software industries. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell more than 4.6%, reflecting a significant blow to investor confidence in the sector. - Nvidia Faces Customer Risk: Shares of Nvidia fell after a report suggested that key customer OpenAI is exploring alternatives, expressing some dissatisfaction with Nvidia's chip performance. This news raised concerns about Nvidia's dominant market position, introducing a new risk factor for the stock. - Eyes on the Jobs Report: Market attention is now shifting to this week's upcoming ADP Employment Report and the official Department of Labor jobs report. The wage growth data, in particular, is being closely watched as a key indicator that could provide clues about the Fed's future monetary tightening path. Key Stocks - Palantir (PLTR): Surged over 6.8% after reporting blowout earnings and a positive outlook, with Q4 revenue jumping 70% on the back of strong AI demand. - PayPal (PYPL): Plunged more than 20% after its annual profit forecast fell far short of market expectations (around 8% growth) and the company announced a CEO transition, causing a collapse in investor sentiment. - Nvidia (NVDA): Dropped over 3% as reports of a potential departure by key customer OpenAI highlighted concerns over the company's monopolistic position.
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    16 mins
  • 2026.2.2 US Market Close | Soft landing hopes grow on stronger-than-expected manufacturing data

    2026.2.2 US Market Close | Soft landing hopes grow on stronger-than-expected manufacturing data
    Feb 2 2026
    On February 2nd, US markets closed higher across all major indices, fueled by stronger-than-expected manufacturing data that bolstered hopes for a soft landing. Despite the robust economic indicators, the market saw significant divergence, with stock performance varying based on individual company earnings. Major Indices - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.05% - Gained as strong manufacturing data fueled soft landing expectations. - S&P 500: +0.54% - Investor sentiment improved on a strong January Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). - Nasdaq Composite: +0.56% - Rose as recession fears eased. Key Issues - Strong Manufacturing Data: The January Manufacturing PMI showed its fastest pace of expansion in over three years, easing recession fears and boosting hopes for a soft landing. - Stock-Specific Divergence: Despite positive macroeconomic tailwinds, individual stock prices diverged sharply based on corporate earnings and future outlooks. - Mixed Reactions to Earnings: Walt Disney's stock fell despite beating earnings estimates, as uncertainty around CEO succession weighed on shares. In contrast, Palantir surged in after-hours trading, demonstrating its explosive growth potential. - Lingering Inflation Concerns: The prices paid component of the manufacturing report came in high, raising some concerns about underlying inflationary pressures. Key Stocks - Palantir (PLTR): Surged over 6% in after-hours trading, driven by a significant Q4 earnings beat and explosive growth in its US business. - Walt Disney (DIS): Dropped over 7% as future management uncertainty, including CEO succession plans, overshadowed its solid earnings report. - NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): Fell around 5% after-hours on concerns of slowing growth in its key automotive semiconductor division.
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    14 mins
  • 2026.1.30 US Market Close | Stocks drop amid hawkish Fed chair pick and Big Tech earnings anxiety

    2026.1.30 US Market Close | Stocks drop amid hawkish Fed chair pick and Big Tech earnings anxiety
    Jan 30 2026
    US markets closed lower across all major indices, weighed down by the nomination of a hawkish new Fed Chair and growing concerns over Big Tech earnings. Stronger-than-expected economic data also pressured the market, pushing back expectations for interest rate cuts. - Dow Jones: Down 0.36% - Weighed down by policy uncertainty. - S&P 500: Down 0.43% - Impacted by the hawkish Fed Chair nomination and rising inflation concerns. - Nasdaq: Down 0.94% - Tech stocks were heavily pressured by disappointing Big Tech earnings and fears of further rate hikes. - New Fed Chair Nomination and Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The nomination of the hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair heightened fears of monetary tightening. Consequently, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.24%, and gold futures plunged by over 7.7%. - Spreading Disappointment in Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft weakened due to concerns over massive AI investment costs, while Apple's gains were limited despite strong results, as the company warned of future margin pressures, failing to meet market expectations. - Stronger-Than-Expected Economic Data: The January Producer Price Index (PPI) came in higher than anticipated, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered 54.0, dampening hopes for an early rate cut. - Microsoft (MSFT): Continued its decline as concerns mounted over significant capital expenditures (approx. $37.5 billion) for building out its AI infrastructure. - Apple (AAPL): Rose 0.5% - Despite strong earnings, including a 38% surge in China sales, the stock's upside was limited by concerns over future margin pressure. - Palantir (PLTR): Fell over 2% - Ahead of its earnings release, investor sentiment was torn between optimism over a reported 121% surge in its US commercial revenue and concerns about government contract risks.
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    19 mins