This episode delivers a comprehensive overview of the shifting dynamics in the global sugar market.

• In Thailand, a government-imposed price cut is pushing sugarcane producers toward alternative crops, particularly cassava, which benefits from stronger prices and less import competition. Sugarcane prices are expected to fall by 22% in the 2025–26 season, prompting this shift. Despite the change, sugar output may initially rise by 6%, though a subsequent 7.5% drop is projected due to reduced cultivation.
• India's sugar production has surged 43% year over year, reaching a projected 31 million metric tons as ethanol diversion declines. The government has set an export quota of 1.5 million metric tons despite concerns of a global surplus. Favorable monsoon rains have further boosted crop yields.
• Brazil is on track to produce 45 million metric tons of sugar in the 2025–26 season, with an 8.7% increase in the Center South region attributed to better harvesting efficiency and favorable weather. A weakening Brazilian real continues to enhance the competitiveness of exports, adding pressure to global sugar prices.
• In the European Union, sugar beet cultivation is set to decline by nearly 10% in Germany and the UK, driven by high input costs and falling prices. This trend mirrors the previous season and may lead to factory closures if it persists.
• China anticipates increased sugar production, rising to 11.5 million metric tons due to expanded cultivation. Consumption is expected to hold steady at 15.8 million metric tons, with low global prices potentially increasing import volumes. The government remains vigilant on sugar syrup imports to stabilize domestic markets.
• Australia's sugar industry is grappling with its lowest price levels in five years. In response, the sector is calling for a pivot to biofuels and bioenergy, supported by proposed government initiatives such as capital grants, feasibility studies, and infrastructure investment.

This week’s episode covers key developments in the global sugar market.

• India reported a 43% increase in sugar production from October to November, reaching 4.11 million metric tons. This growth is attributed to improved yields and earlier mill operations. Forecasts for the 2025–26 season range from 31 to 34.9 million tons. Despite these gains, India reduced its sugar export quota from 2 million to 1.5 million tons. The Food Ministry is considering higher ethanol procurement prices, which could incentivize mills to shift focus from sugar to ethanol, impacting future output and export volumes.
• Brazil is on track for a record sugar output of 45 million metric tons. Early November data showed an 8.7% year-over-year increase, influenced by rising crude oil prices that make ethanol production more attractive. Robust crush volumes and sugar recovery rates support global supply growth, though this may suppress international prices.
• Thailand anticipates a modest 2% rise in output, totaling 10.3 million tons for the upcoming season. As the world’s third-largest producer, Thailand’s consistent growth continues to bolster global supply, potentially prolonging lower price periods.
• In the European Union, especially France, favorable weather conditions are expected to boost sugar beet harvests despite regulatory limits on pesticide use. The local growers’ association is optimistic about positive impacts on production.
• The United States is contributing to global supply pressures with revised upward production estimates, while ethanol mandates influence the use of sugarcane. In Pakistan, limited output growth is expected, but government stabilization policies play a key role in balancing market surpluses and shortages.
• Across all regions, the global sugar market remains shaped by an intricate mix of production trends, government policies, and energy market linkages. Shifting priorities between sugar and ethanol production are increasingly influencing output strategies and global pricing dynamics.

This week’s global sugar market report.

• Fiji’s sugar industry continues to face operational challenges due to persistent heavy rainfall, which has hindered activity at both the Labasa and Rarawai mills. In response, the Fiji Sugar Corporation has extended the crushing season at Labasa and is conducting operational trials at Rarawai following fire damage. The corporation is also working to curb cane burning to maintain productivity under difficult weather conditions.
• In Malaysia, MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad is preparing for favorable developments in 2026, anticipating a decline in raw sugar prices. The company is enhancing operational efficiency and targeting a 95 percent efficiency rate while managing exports conservatively. Despite improved performance, it continues to navigate pressures from weak global sugar prices and volatile currency and futures markets.
• India’s Sanjivani sugar factory is planning additional support measures for farmers, potentially expanding subsidies for harvesting and transport costs to a national level. These efforts aim to maintain a fair sugarcane price and protect farmers from predatory pricing, especially in Karnataka.
• Global sugar pricing remains influenced by complex factors. While India’s export restrictions and Brazil’s revised production numbers signal a bullish market, the International Sugar Organization’s projected global surplus offers a moderating counterpoint. India’s ethanol policies and Brazil’s strong output forecasts are pivotal in shaping short-term global price movements.
• In the Philippines, sugar production is expected to remain steady at 2.09 million metric tons despite pest challenges and varying outlooks from local and U.S. agencies. The expansion of sugarcane cultivation into former banana plantations may help offset potential yield losses.
• Finally, Brazil's sugar market dynamics reflect a nuanced picture: while a recent downward forecast for 2026–2027 temporarily boosted prices, the country’s current production remains robust, reaffirming its dominant position in global supply.