This episode reviews significant developments in the global palm oil market.

• Malaysia’s palm oil sector is experiencing notable volatility. In December 2025, stock levels are projected to increase by 3 percent month over month to 2.93 million tons, driven by slower export growth. At the same time, production has fallen 11 percent month over month to 1.72 million tons. However, cumulative output for the first eleven months of 2025 rose 3.4 percent year over year to 18.45 million tons. Rising inventories alongside solid production could place downward pressure on crude palm oil prices as 2026 approaches. Meanwhile, the sector is navigating a contrast between its growing role in carbon markets and persistent challenges in pricing competitiveness, logistics, and trade relations, especially with China and India.
• Indonesia is taking a strategic turn with the introduction of a B50 biodiesel mandate, aiming to raise the palm oil share in biodiesel to 50 percent by late 2026. This move is expected to boost domestic demand, although analysts warn it may disrupt the supply-demand balance. As one of the world’s leading palm oil producers, Indonesia’s policy shifts continue to shape global market pricing and sustainability standards.
• Cameroon is also advancing its role in the palm oil sector, with plans to increase crude palm oil production by 20,500 tons in 2026. Supported by a CFA51.7 billion investment from Standard Chartered Bank London, the country is developing new processing infrastructure to reduce reliance on imports and improve food security. Strategies include expanding plantation areas, enhancing yields among smallholder farmers, and improving logistics to address a structural supply deficit.

This episode provides a detailed overview of recent developments in the global canola and rapeseed markets.

• Bulgaria has experienced a notable rise in rapeseed cultivation, yielding 290,000 tons this season. However, this growth has not offset a shortfall in raw materials, prompting increased rapeseed imports. The emphasis on rapeseed has also led to stagnation in sunflower seed production, which has remained at 1.5 million tons for two consecutive years. As a result, Bulgaria has grown more reliant on sunflower seed imports from Romania and Moldova, affecting the local processing industry.
• Russia’s record oilseed harvest, particularly from the Rostov region and Krasnodar territory, is expected to bolster rapeseed oil and meal exports. Yet, sunflower oil prices have climbed by 15 to 20 percent over the past 18 months due to strong domestic and international demand. India remains the top importer of Russian sunflower oil, while emerging markets in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia signal expanding demand. However, export capacity is constrained by infrastructure limitations at key southern ports like Novorossiysk.
• In Canada, canola production hit a record 21.8 million tons in 2025, despite a reduced cultivation area. Export volumes have declined, primarily due to reduced trade with China, affecting the country’s trade balance. Domestic price volatility and logistical challenges in grain transport are further influencing the market landscape.
• Australia’s canola exports dropped to 62,708 tons in October due to depleted stocks ahead of the new harvest. During this period, Japan played a key role as a major importer. Meanwhile, domestic processing has reached record levels, supported by strong international demand for rapeseed oil. Favorable agricultural conditions and market signals are fueling positive expectations for future production.

This week’s update provides a detailed look at the evolving landscape of the global sunflower oil market.

• Russia is poised to become the leading exporter of sunflower oil, with forecasts indicating an increase from 4.2 million to 4.4 million tons for the 2025 season. However, domestic production faces setbacks. A shift by Don region farmers to local seed varieties has resulted in yield reductions of 20 to 30 percent. The Russian Grain Union has voiced concerns over the quality of these seeds, stressing the need for domestic breeding improvements to meet global standards.
• In Ukraine, sunflower oil exports are expected to decline from 4.7 million to 4.2 million tons due to a lower harvest, now projected at 10.5 million tons—a reduction of 1.5 million tons from earlier estimates. Oil production is also falling to 4.5 million tons. This shortfall has caused sunflower prices to rise, ranging from 28,429 to 28,500 Ukrainian hryvnia per ton. High demand and limited supply are driving intense competition among processors.
• Argentina maintains stable sunflower oil exports at 1.5 million tons, offering consistency amid broader market volatility. While not a top exporter by volume, Argentina’s reliable output plays a key role in global market stability.
• Turkey has significantly ramped up imports of Russian sunflower oil, reaching 82,600 tons in October valued at USD 108.7 million. This surge from previous years reflects deepening trade ties with Russia and reinforces Turkey’s strategic positioning in the sunflower oil market.