Cocoa Crunch: Futures Dip, Surplus Looms, Chocoholics Rejoice cover art

Cocoa Crunch: Futures Dip, Surplus Looms, Chocoholics Rejoice

Cocoa Crunch: Futures Dip, Surplus Looms, Chocoholics Rejoice

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This is your Daily Cocoa Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello and welcome back to the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark, here to keep you up to speed on everything cocoa – from fresh market moves to global trends and what it all means for your sweet tooth and your wallet.

Let’s jump into today’s headline: the current trading price for cocoa. As of Tuesday, November 4th, 2025, US cocoa futures are sitting at around six thousand four hundred sixty-nine dollars per metric ton. That’s quite a shift from earlier this year, when we saw record highs nearing twelve thousand dollars. Those sky-high prices were driven by tough conditions in West Africa, with drought, heat, and disease putting a major squeeze on cocoa supplies. The past two years saw historic costs, but the market is beginning to catch its breath.

So, what’s driving today’s price action? For starters, cocoa prices took a five-week high after news broke that it’s going to be added to the Bloomberg Commodity Index next January. This is big, because funds that track this index manage over a hundred billion dollars, and cocoa’s inclusion could spark billions in inflows into the market. According to Peak Trading Research, passive funds may need to buy almost two billion dollars’ worth of cocoa futures in the next few months. That adds some real fuel to the fire and extra interest in the commodity.

There’s also been some support from a slowdown in cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast. Farmers there shipped about three hundred thousand metric tons for the new season so far, down sixteen percent from last year. Lower exports can mean tighter supply and firmer prices. And while global production is forecast to increase this year, inventory levels in US ports are actually at a seven-month low, keeping traders on their toes.

Looking ahead, analysts are starting to talk about a market shift from shortage to surplus, thanks to better weather and improvements in production. The International Cocoa Organization estimates a surplus of roughly one hundred forty-two thousand metric tons this year. That would mark the first surplus in four years, signaling more stability on the horizon.

Even with this rebound, the pressure isn’t disappearing overnight. High cocoa prices from earlier are still working their way down the supply chain. For chocolate makers and candy fans, that means retail prices - especially for your favorite bars and treats - are still elevated, and probably won’t drop all the way back to pre-inflation levels in the near term. Companies like Hershey and Mondelez have said they’re optimistic about price relief next year, and some deflation may show up by 2026.

There are practical takeaways here if you’re a business or consumer. If you buy cocoa or chocolate in bulk – whether you’re a food manufacturer or a local bakery – keep an eye on these market moves and consider locking in prices if you see favorable trends. For everyday shoppers, expect some adjustment on shelves in the next year, but don’t count on a return to the good old days just yet.

So, to sum up: cocoa futures around sixty-four sixty-nine dollars per metric ton today, with strong market activity and signs of recovery. The next few months will be crucial, especially with major investment index changes and evolving supply dynamics.

That’s all for today on the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. Be sure to subscribe, rate the show, and tune in next time for another update with me, Vanessa Clark. And remember – whether you’re trading, baking, or just enjoying a bit of chocolate, knowing the latest cocoa trends can keep you ahead of the game. Thanks for listening!

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