When politics and markets collide, it’s easy to let emotions take over. In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Cameron Dawson break down the latest government shutdown, how politics really impact markets (if at all), and what investors should pay attention to amid the noise. They also explore whether AI spending could mirror past bubbles, how Fed rate cuts might hurt the very consumers they’re meant to help, and the importance of creative feedback in work and life—all wrapped in the trio’s signature mix of humor, insight, and surprise topics.

Topics covered:
• Should investors let politics influence portfolio decisions
• How government shutdowns historically impact markets and GDP
• The concentration of market gains and “earnings bubbles” in AI-related sectors
• Why the Fed cutting rates could slow high-income consumer spending
• The rise of prediction markets and “casino capitalism”
• Whether the AI boom could lead to one of the biggest wealth redistributions ever
• The difference between valuation bubbles and earnings bubbles
• How overinvestment cycles in railroads and fiber optics mirror today’s AI buildout
• Lessons from editing, feedback, and doing your best creative work
• The case for (and against) shushing during yoga

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and cold open
02:00 Politics and investing—should they mix?
06:30 The market’s indifference to shutdowns
10:00 How to tell if news events really matter to markets
12:00 Shutdown effects on GDP and employment
14:00 What could make this shutdown different
17:00 How Fed rate cuts might backfire
20:30 Data blackouts, prediction markets, and Calci
25:00 The psychology of betting and “casino capitalism”
26:50 Market concentration and the “data center blob”
28:30 When the market becomes the economy
29:00 Surprise topic: Will the AI bubble burst?
33:00 Over-earning and capital destruction in past bubbles
36:00 The redistribution effect of AI CapEx
40:00 Creative feedback and doing your best work
47:00 Shushing, silence, and respecting quiet spaces
53:00 Closing thoughts and sign-offs

In this episode of Click Beta on Excess Returns, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Matt Zeigler dive into the trust crisis in markets, the implications of AI-driven CapEx, and how small lessons from life translate into investing wisdom. From the reliability of payroll data to the “bubbles all the way down” problem, the conversation blends deep market insights with practical rituals for navigating uncertainty.

Topics Covered

• The decay of institutional trust and unreliable economic data

• Public vs. private data and how investors should interpret it

• “Good news vs. bad news” in markets and earnings reactions

• AI-related CapEx, margin pressure, and the sustainability of Big Tech’s dominance

• Winner-take-all dynamics in AI and parallels to the fiber boom

• Productivity gains: small businesses vs. mega-cap tech

• Investing lessons from technical analysis, rituals, and “last box” routines

• The importance of presence, humility vs. hubris, and team culture

• Democratization of alternatives, fee/tax efficiency, and “hassle efficiency”

Timestamps
00:00 – The challenge of trusting economic data
03:13 – Who do you trust anymore?
05:07 – Public vs. private data and the “Strange Landing” thesis
07:38 – Good news, bad news dynamics
10:20 – Earnings estimates and labor data gaps
12:00 – AI-driven CapEx and narrow growth drivers
15:00 – Valuation multiples and eroding free cash flow margins
18:00 – Winner-take-all risks in AI
22:00 – Small business productivity vs. mega-cap adoption
27:00 – Rituals, technical analysis, and “the flush deck”
31:00 – Always say it out loud: transparency in investing
37:00 – Leadership lessons: presence, colleagues, and culture
45:00 – Democratization of alternatives and “hassle efficiency”
53:40 – Wrapping up: trust, skepticism, and humility

What happens when liquidity floods the system, narratives drive markets, and the international investing playbook gets rewritten in real time? In this episode of Click Beta, Cameron Dawson joins Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig for a wide-ranging conversation that blends sharp macro insight with unfiltered commentary on global markets, thematic investing, valuation risk, and even concert etiquette. From the Mag 7 to Labubu toys to the Church of the SubGenius, this is finance as you've never heard it before.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• Why international earnings have flatlined since 2007 vs. 150% U.S. earnings growth

• The role of liquidity in driving asset prices and masking risk

• Whether dollar weakness could trigger an international bull market

• The earnings dynamics behind U.S. and European bank rallies

• Capital flows, tariffs, and the sustainability of international outperformance

• The search for a "liquidity killer" and the shadow finance risk

• Why thematic investing often masks lazy portfolio construction

• The behavioral case for income-focused investing (even when it makes no sense)

• The future of Total Addressable Markets (TAMs), cult brands, and cultural investing

• Cameron Dawson’s stance on standing at concerts—and why you should too

⏱️ Timestamps:

00:00 – Global earnings: U.S. vs. International and EM
02:00 – Ground rules and intro banter
03:30 – Why international investing is back in the conversation
06:00 – Earnings stagnation outside the U.S.
08:00 – Capital flows and the dollar’s role in international bull markets
10:00 – Are European banks investable again?
13:00 – The fairy tale of tariffs turning into CapEx
15:00 – Liquidity as the market’s ultimate panacea
18:00 – Shadow banking and the private credit risk stack
21:00 – Valuation as amplifier, not timing tool
23:00 – What could kill the liquidity narrative?
26:00 – Are clients chasing the wrong themes?
28:00 – The case against lazy thematic investing
32:00 – The Church of the SubGenius and embracing small TAMs
35:00 – Cultural signals, talismans, and deeper connections
38:00 – Why do income products exist? Exploring irrational demand
43:00 – Trust structures and gaming distributions
44:30 – Standing at concerts: A live debate
49:00 – The Ozzy Osbourne legacy and Tina Turner on meditation
51:00 – Where to find the hosts and guest online