Candy Crunch: Cocoa Prices Soar, Halloween Sours cover art

Candy Crunch: Cocoa Prices Soar, Halloween Sours

Candy Crunch: Cocoa Prices Soar, Halloween Sours

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This is your Daily Cocoa Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker, your go-to podcast for all things cocoa, where we break down the latest news, price trends, and market insights. I am Vanessa Clark, and today is Wednesday, October twenty-ninth, twenty twenty-five.

Let’s dive right into our most pressing question: where is cocoa trading today and why does it matter to you? As of the close on October twenty-eighth, the cocoa commodity price was around eight thousand three hundred thirty-seven dollars per metric ton on US markets, according to recent trading reports. That price reflects a minor uptick from the past few days, although if you step back, it’s a far cry from the jaw-dropping highs we saw just months ago. If you were following along this spring, cocoa actually touched a record ten thousand dollars per ton, driven largely by a drastic shortage in West Africa, where roughly seventy percent of the world’s cocoa is grown.

What is behind these wild swings? Several factors have collided—a kind of perfect storm for cocoa. First, the big one: supply shortages. West African countries like Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are facing ongoing weather extremes, including floods in one season, and harsh drought the next. On top of that, crop diseases like the cocoa swollen shoot virus have devastated huge swaths of cocoa farms, particularly in Ghana’s Western North region. The result has been a supply deficit not seen in almost sixty years, sending prices soaring through much of twenty twenty-four and twenty twenty-five.

But here’s what’s changing right now. There are signs, albeit faint, that the supply crunch could be easing. This season’s cocoa pod counts in West Africa are reportedly above the five-year average, suggesting harvests may rebound slightly. Farmers are feeling cautiously optimistic and, while storms in Cameroon remain a risk, overall weather in key regions has improved. That optimism is contributing to the recent dip from all-time highs.

Still, the market remains jittery. ICE-monitored stockpiles—basically the official cocoa reserves held in US ports—continue to trend downward, and even a slight bump in harvests may not be enough to fill the global gap right away. Most analysts warn we will see continued volatility into twenty twenty-six, meaning chocolate lovers and candy manufacturers alike need to buckle up. Grocery shoppers have already seen the impact: chocolate bar prices are up about fourteen percent from last year, leading some people to opt for non-chocolate treats this Halloween.

On the business front, snack giants like Mondelez—the makers of Oreos and Ritz—are feeling the squeeze, too. They have just trimmed their financial outlook for the year, citing not only higher cocoa costs but also more cautious shoppers who are skipping extra snacks to focus on essentials. Mondelez expects their sales to climb just four percent or more this year, a slower pace than initially hoped.

So what’s the takeaway for everyday listeners? If you are a consumer, be prepared for higher chocolate prices to stick around, at least until the supply situation is truly resolved. If you are an investor or work in the food industry, keep a close watch on West African weather and export data—we could see some sharp corrections if the harvests really do improve. And for everyone else, this is a vivid reminder of why climate change and agriculture trends matter, not just to markets but to what ends up on your table or in your trick-or-treat bag.

Thank you for joining me on today’s edition of the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. Make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts so you never miss an update, and tune in next time for the latest cocoa news and expert analysis. I am Vanessa Clark, wishing you a sweet day—no matter what’s happening in the world of cocoa.

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