Former Director of International Finance at the Federal Reserve, Dr. Steven Kamin, breaks down the transmission of US monetary policy to the rest of the world. We discuss his research on why emerging markets (EMs) have become more resilient to Fed tightening, the impact of Chinese subsidies, and the potential risks to the US dollar's safe-haven status. Plus, a deep dive into Javier Milei’s stabilization plan in Argentina.See his work here: https://www.aei.org/profile/steven-b-kamin/DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of the entities they represent.

(00:00) Introduction: Beating Sisyphus & Dr. Steven Kamin's Background(01:20) Living Abroad & Early Career in Latin America(03:14) The "Crisis Department" at the Federal Reserve(05:25) The "Great Moderation" vs. Post-2008 Volatility(06:55) Monetary Transmission: How US Rates Impact the World(09:47) The Volcker Shock vs. The 2005 "Good" Tightening(12:40) Real Shocks vs. Inflation Shocks: A Crucial Distinction(18:17) Supply Shocks: Does the Fed Look Through Them?(20:04) Emerging Markets: Endemic Inflation & Currency Weakness(22:04) China's Economy, Currency Manipulation & Subsidies(25:53) Vulnerability: Why Fundamentals Matter for EMs(27:50) Why Emerging Markets Were Resilient in 2024(31:11) The "China Factor" in Global Demand(33:23) US Dollar Dominance & Fiscal Responsibility Risks(36:24) "Liberation Day" & The Dollar-VIX Structural Break(43:08) Argentina: Milei, Stabilization, and Dollarization(46:25) Conclusion

#macroeconomics #fed #milei #chinaeconomy #forex

#markmobius #crypto #cbdc #emergingmarkets #bitcoin #finance #cornell #digitalcurrency #investing

In this episode of Beating Sisyphus, legendary investor Mark Mobius joins Lourdes Casanova, John Ninia, and Sharwari Pandit to discuss their new book, "The Digital Currency Revolution." We also speak with Rafaela Baldeon, head of the Cornell Bitcoin Club.

The panel explores the seismic shift in global finance, debating the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) versus decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. From the rapid adoption of digital payments in India and Brazil to the regulatory landscapes of Dubai and the US, this conversation covers how innovation is emerging under pressure.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Introduction: Mark Mobius & "The Digital Currency Revolution"

(2:25) - How the Book Came to Fruition

(7:06) - The History of Mobile Payments (Kenya, China, India, Brazil)

(10:48) - Mark Mobius: What is the Purpose of Money?

(13:12) - Explained: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) vs. Cryptocurrency

(16:21) - The Bitcoin Club at Cornell

(19:38) - The Battle: Government Control vs. Financial Freedom (22:14) - Global Regulation: US, EU, China & India

(25:38) - Mark Mobius on Gold vs. Bitcoin

(29:37) - De-Dollarization & Geopolitics

(36:00) - Why Crypto Innovators are Moving to Dubai

(41:03) - Country Focus: India’s UPI & Crypto Adoption

(43:38) - Country Focus: Brazil’s Pix System

(45:03) - Country Focus: Nigeria’s eNaira

(46:47) - Why Mark Mobius is Bullish on India

In this episode of Beating Sisyphus, we sit down with Lourdes Casanova, Director of the Cañizares Center for Emerging Markets at Cornell University, to explore how developing nations are breaking the cycle of economic instability.

From "digital leapfrogging" in finance to the shifting dynamics of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Lourdes explains why countries like Brazil and India are bypassing traditional Western infrastructure to build something entirely new. We also dive into the critical difference between Greenfield investment and M&A, and why the next 25 years could mark the resurgence of Latin America.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of the entities they represent.
#emergingmarkets #lourdescasanova #digitalpayments #fdi #economics #latinamerica #brazil #upi #fintech #globaltrade #BeatingSisyphus

TIMESTAMPS:
(0:00) Intro: What is "Beating Sisyphus"?
(1:27) Lourdes Casanova’s Journey & The Mission
(3:13) 15 Years of the Emerging Markets Institute
(6:50) The "Golden Age" of the Global South (Last 25 Years)
(8:50) Digital Leapfrogging: Skipping the Credit Card Era
(9:45) Payment Models Compared: China, Kenya, India & Brazil
(13:28) How Protectionism Drives South-South Trade
(15:20) FDI Explained: Why Nations Prefer Greenfield over M&A
(19:34) The Impact of M&A on Local Innovation
(22:33) Future Outlook: Can Brazil Escape the Middle-Income Trap?