This month’s data shows a mixed but generally positive picture across the capitals:

Monthly & 12-month highlights

• Brisbane: Best monthly performer again; over the past 12 months it’s +$75,000 (≈ +$1,400/wk).
• Perth: Still strong though slower than last month; +$56,000 over 12 months (≈ +$1,100/wk), broadly level with Adelaide.
• Adelaide: Momentum easing but still +$55,000 in 12 months (≈ +$1,100/wk).
• Sydney: Momentum improving; +$26,000 over 12 months (≈ +$500/wk).
• Melbourne: Clear turn-up; now running at about +$200/wk (~ +$10,400 over 12 months on current pace).

Context & trends we’re watching:

Annual % leaders: Darwin shows the fastest annual % gain (~+10.2%), with Brisbane ~+7.9% and Perth ~+6.6%. (We’re not buying Darwin due to risk/driver depth.)

Houses vs units: The house premium hit ~48% (~$340k). With caps on the new deposit guarantee (from 1 Oct) covering a far greater share of unit markets in most capitals, we expect incremental demand to favour units in the near term.

Supply squeeze: Total listings remain below last year across the majors (e.g., Sydney –9.2%, Melbourne –15.4%, Brisbane –15.8%, Adelaide –7.9%, Perth –11.8%). Approvals sit below decade averages, especially for houses.

Rental & cash flow: Combined-capitals gross yields ~3.5% (Sydney ~3.0%). On conservative finance assumptions (~6.5% IO at median values), holding costs can still be negatively geared (~$538/wk at the median) — selection and structure matter.

Buyer behaviour: Time-to-buy has stretched; fear of overpaying is replacing FOMO. With fewer quality listings and more competition, brief discipline and on-the-ground execution are key.

Pros (what’s working)

• Tight listings, low vacancies and still-firm demand support ongoing price resilience.
• Policy tailwinds (deposit guarantee) likely favour well-located units.
• Brisbane/Perth/Adelaide continue to show solid momentum; Melbourne is warming.

Cons (watch-outs)

• Affordability & borrowing costs keep pressure on cash flow.
• Build approvals still too low to solve supply.
• Competition for A-grade assets remains high.

If you want help cutting through the noise and securing the right property (not just any property), book a discovery call with the Providence team. We’ll tailor a brief, source on- and off-market, and handle end-to-end due diligence so you buy with confidence.

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