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A Conversation with Paul

A Conversation with Paul

By: Paul Podolsky
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 Hosted by investor and author Paul Podolsky. Paul is founder and CIO of Kate Capital and the author of The Uncomfortable Truth About Money, Raising a Thief and Master, Minion.

paulpodolsky.substack.comPaul Podolsky Economics Political Science Politics & Government
Episodes
  • Cars Are Going the Way of Typewriters

    Cars Are Going the Way of Typewriters
    Oct 3 2025
    While journalists breathlessly report on a plane crash or a train derailment, they are silent on a more salient fact: about 1.2 million people will die this year in car crashes. Fortunately for future generations, most of these terrible drivers are going to be replaced by a computer. In fact, in a number of countries (Norway, UAE) that is already happening, and in the US, it will significantly occur in the next decade.Source: GrokThe one snag is that roughly 1 job in 10 in the US—broadly defined—is tied to driving a vehicle, if one includes cabs, forklifts, insurance agents, and so on. Said differently, to save 1 million people a year from dying in a car crash, tens of millions of people are going to lose their jobs. To put this in perspective, I am thrilled to share my conversation with Alexei Andreev. He is the co-founder of Autotech Ventures, a venture capital fund, and holds degrees from Stanford and the Moscow Steel and Alloys Institute. Alexei has been investing in this shift for years and will walk you through it.Earlier this week, I rowed under Route 95 pre-dawn, cars and trucks hurtling down the road. In the quiet of a scull, looking up, it is an industrial maw. I had a flashback to watching the Cape Ann Tool Factory as a child. Enormous furnaces poured steel and pounding presses turned them into tools. I was spellbound by the heat and noise. I suspect we will look back on Route 95 the same way. In my lifetime, it will likely be replaced by quiet, humming electrical cars driven by robots. The tool factory is now abandoned. This shift is bearish for the cost of labor, bullish for corporate margins and materials that go into creating energy, and bad for politics. What politician can win on a platform of technical change that displaces tens of millions of jobs?This document is strictly confidential and is intended for authorized recipients of “A Letter from Paul” (the “Letter”) only. It includes personal opinions that are current as of the date of this Letter and does not represent the official positions of Kate Capital LLC (“Kate Capital”). This letter is presented for discussion purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, an offer, or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure, or distribution of the material in this presentation is strictly forbidden without the express written consent of Paul Podolsky or Kate Capital LLC.If an investment idea is discussed in the Letter, there is no guarantee that the investment objective will be achieved. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Unless otherwise noted, the valuation of the specific investment opportunity contained within this presentation is based upon information and data available as of the date these materials were prepared.An investment with Kate Capital is speculative and involves significant risks, including the potential loss of all or a substantial portion of invested capital, the potential use of leverage, and the lack of liquidity of an investment. Recipients should not assume that securities or any companies identified in this presentation, or otherwise related to the information in this presentation, are, have been or will be, investments held by accounts managed by Kate Capital or that investments in any such securities have been or will be profitable. Please refer to the Private Placement Memorandum, and Kate Capital’s Form ADV, available at www.advisorinfo.sec.gov, for important information about an investment with Kate Capital.Any companies identified herein in which Kate Capital is invested do not represent all of the investments made or recommended for any account managed by Kate Capital. Certain information presented herein has been supplied by third parties, including management or agents of the underlying portfolio company. While Kate Capital believes such information to be accurate, it has relied upon such third parties to provide accurate information and has not independently verified such information.The graphs, charts, and other visual aids are provided for informational purposes only. None of these graphs, charts, or visual aids can of themselves be used to make investment decisions. No representation is made that these will assist any person in making investment decisions and no graph, chart or other visual aid can capture all factors and variables required in making such decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit paulpodolsky.substack.com
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    59 mins
  • Story Telling Revolutions

    Story Telling Revolutions
    Sep 18 2025
    I was traveling this week, so today is mostly sharing a podcast with Pedro Lopez, who created the remarkable series Gloria on Netflix. Regarding investments, I want to share a brief follow-up on last week's post about the impact of AI on labor. A fun fact: there are over 6 million jobs in the US tied to driving a vehicle of some sort, making up 5% of the workforce. While regulations and unions discourage this, many of these jobs could be replaced today by a computer, which would be both safer and cheaper. The consensus is that AI will only slowly impact the labor force. I suspect this is wrong and it will only become obvious after it has happened. A possible straw in the wind is that youth unemployment is higher in the US and China, the two countries at the forefront of AI application. I show both charts below.Source: Haver.I know anecdotally from college-age kids and their parents that it is hard to find work. This is certainly true in the US, Canada, and China. AI is particularly good at entry-level work. This is less evident in Europe, and it stands to reason that Europe's labor laws might make it harder to gut the IT department, creating a delayed effect and staving off the inevitable. Regarding the podcast, in addition to AI, we are living through a period of media creative destruction. The internet gave birth to Netflix and signaled the decline of the major television networks and film studios. Pedro created a story about another media revolution—Radio Free Europe in Portugal in 1968. The story takes place during the height of the Cold War and Portugal's own dictatorship and is full of fascinating contradictions. When I grew up in the 1970s, the odds of me consuming Pedro’s art were close to zero. Now I don’t know what airs on television but pass along good Netflix shows like precious currency in a new bazar. Enjoy.If you like this writing, you might enjoy one of my books:Raising a Thief, Master, Minion, The Uncomfortable Truth About MoneyThis document is strictly confidential and is intended for authorized recipients of “A Letter from Paul” (the “Letter”) only. It includes personal opinions that are current as of the date of this Letter and does not represent the official positions of Kate Capital LLC (“Kate Capital”). This letter is presented for discussion purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, an offer, or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure, or distribution of the material in this presentation is strictly forbidden without the express written consent of Paul Podolsky or Kate Capital LLC.If an investment idea is discussed in the Letter, there is no guarantee that the investment objective will be achieved. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Unless otherwise noted, the valuation of the specific investment opportunity contained within this presentation is based upon information and data available as of the date these materials were prepared.An investment with Kate Capital is speculative and involves significant risks, including the potential loss of all or a substantial portion of invested capital, the potential use of leverage, and the lack of liquidity of an investment. Recipients should not assume that securities or any companies identified in this presentation, or otherwise related to the information in this presentation, are, have been or will be, investments held by accounts managed by Kate Capital or that investments in any such securities have been or will be profitable. Please refer to the Private Placement Memorandum, and Kate Capital’s Form ADV, available at www.advisorinfo.sec.gov, for important information about an investment with Kate Capital.Any companies identified herein in which Kate Capital is invested do not represent all of the investments made or recommended for any account managed by Kate Capital. Certain information presented herein has been supplied by third parties, including management or agents of the underlying portfolio company. While Kate Capital believes such information to be accurate, it has relied upon such third parties to provide accurate information and has not independently verified such information.The graphs, charts, and other visual aids are provided for informational purposes only. None of these graphs, charts, or visual aids can of themselves be used to make investment decisions. No representation is made that these will assist any person in making investment decisions and no graph, chart or other visual aid can capture all factors and variables required in making such decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit paulpodolsky.substack.com
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    58 mins
  • From Fear to Greed

    From Fear to Greed
    Jun 27 2025
    THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. Last week at this time, investors and the world were wondering if an attack on Iran would spiral into a broader war. Since then, oil prices plunged nearly 20% (shown below), and the focus shifted to TALO. The White House criticized Canada for having the audacity to do to the US what China did—retaliate where it hurts. China restricted rare earth exports, while Canada imposed digital taxes. Same idea.Given that Iran is now in the rearview mirror, where does that leave us? A few thoughts on markets below. Before I jump in, however, two podcasts. First, I spoke last week with Democratic Congressman Jim Himes, who accurately predicted the policy with Iran and also shared his thoughts with what is going on in DC more broadly. Among other interesting points: Congress won’t constrain spending until a crisis emerges. This suggests ever-larger deficits until long-end bond yields spike. Other countries are balancing their budgets; the US, not so much. Second, a past guest, Dr. Alexander Vanyukov, was labeled a “foreign agent” by Russia last week. You can hear our 2021 conversation here. Alexander is a friend and a remarkable person—the type a government should treasure. You can hear why in this podcast. During COVID, his hospital was on the front lines, and among other innovative solutions, he called for volunteers in a notoriously cynical society and recruited soccer hooligans to care for grandmothers. I’m not making this up. That Russia is punishing someone like him shows how far the government has veered off course, alienating talent, as it has for generations. Russia is dangerous, and the US will likely abandon Ukraine to Russia’s grip as fall approaches and US funding dries up. While it won’t happen this fall, if Russia isn’t contained, other countries will end up in Ukraine’s situation. We all know the story; Alexander’s conversation puts a human face on it. Regarding the markets, three big themes stand out: AI, slowing growth, and tariffs.* This week, AI went haywire; the NASDAQ surged nearly 4% and is now up 4.5% for the year. But this had little to do with AI. Instead, it was driven by a) the realization that Iran was foreign policy Kabuki and b) expectations the Fed is about to cut interest rates. But why “b”? Not because the Fed said so. The Fed chief stated the opposite in two days of testimony, emphasizing they are in no hurry to cut rates. Yet, the market anticipates rate cuts and priced in another 25 basis points of cuts just as tariffs are set to kick in and drive up prices. As a result, rate expectations shifted significantly, the yield curve steepened, and stocks soared. We now have a sense of what will happen when rates are cut, though I suspect that won’t happen for a while. The line below shows the change in discounting. * Growth is slowing, slowly and at various paces in different countries. If you look at where unemployment is above average and yet bond markets are discounting relative strength, some of the smaller countries on the periphery stand out, like New Zealand and Sweden. That said, our perception is that growth is gradually slowing everywhere. Most governments are reducing spending, private sector borrowing is lackluster, and unemployment is rising, so incomes are falling. In short, where is the fuel for a boom, outside of AI?* Tariffs are coming. We just don’t know how much or when, and everyone is confused. If I were the Fed, I’d stick to my guns and hold off on rate changes until inflation and employment data clarify the situation. If I were in the White House, I’d delay the tariffs because signing these deals is clearly tough. If I were Canada or China, I’d do exactly what they are doing. How many times has the US Commerce Secretary said a flurry of deals was just around the corner? The net effect of the uncertainty is loose monetary policy globally (as growth slows), and the net effect of technology is deflation, so the rally in assets (stocks and bonds) might just be getting started. However, the focus could shift to Asia, which a) has strong technology, b) has lagged the equity rally, and c) is increasingly focused on shareholder returns. This document is strictly confidential and is intended for authorized recipients of “A Letter from Paul” (the “Letter”) only. It includes personal opinions that are current as of the date of this Letter and does not represent the official positions of Kate Capital LLC (“Kate Capital”). This letter is presented for discussion purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, an offer, or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure, or distribution of the material in this presentation is strictly forbidden without the express written consent of Paul Podolsky or Kate Capital LLC.If an investment idea is discussed in the Letter, there is no ...
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    33 mins
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