29. Organised / disorganised typology of serial killers: A statistics deep dive on the 1986 study cover art

29. Organised / disorganised typology of serial killers: A statistics deep dive on the 1986 study

29. Organised / disorganised typology of serial killers: A statistics deep dive on the 1986 study

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 Are you a true crime enthusiast but an even bigger research methods nerd? I see you. If you have watched Mindhunters, read Silence of the Lambs, or are an old school Criminal Minds fan then you already know this study and this team of researchers. In the 1980s a team of FBI agents and researchers teamed up to advance what we knew about serial sexual offenders (serial killers).In this episode, Dr Monsurul Hoq and I nerd out on the research methods and statistical analysis used in the first peer-reviewed research article that compared crime scene characteristics for organised and disorganised serial killers.The beauty of this episode is the practical application of statistical methods. We talk about statistical power, alpha inflation, p-hacking, the obsession with p = .05 (conventions in determining statistical significance), and the importance of subject matter expertise and clinical / practical significance.The paper this episode focuses onRessler, R.K., Burgess, A.W., Douglas, J.E., Hartman, C.R., & D’Agostino, R.B. (1986). Sexual Killers and Their Victims: Identifying patterns through crime scene analysis. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 1(3), 288-308. https://doi.org/10.1177/088626086001003003 [not open access]About Dr Monsurul HoqDr Monsurul Hoq has 10 years’ experience as a Biostatistician in medical and health research (in prevention and cure of common childhood illness, transgender health, vaccine uptake, paediatric reference intervals, disability, and mental health), leading, consulting, and performing statistical analysis of data, interpreting findings and reporting results. Prior to working in academia, Monsurul Hoq worked in non-government organisations in Bangladesh and South Sudan, monitoring and evaluating integrated community-based projects in education and child health sector.Monsurul completed his PhD in Biostatistics at the University of Melbourne. His research established continuous age-specific reference intervals for blood biomarkers in children using a novel statistical method. You can find a list of Monsurul's publications here.Jaz is writing a bookThis interview was conducted in preparation for a book I am writing. If you'd like to be notified when the book is finished, please email me and I will store your email and only contact you when the book is ready for you to read. [hello@jasminebmacdonald.com.au]Cite this episodeMacDonald, J. B. & Hoq, M. (2025, December 29). Organised / disorganised typology of serial killers: A statistics deep dive of the 1986 study (No. 29) [Audio podcast episode]. In Psych Attack. www.psychattack.com TranscriptThe transcript for this episode was developed using transcription software. There may be errors in the content as I do not have capacity to review for accuracy. AcknowledgementsPsych Attack is created and hosted by Dr Jasmine B. MacDonald. The video and audio for this episode was edited by Morgan McRae. Special thanks to Dr Monsurul Hoq for sharing your time and expertise.Serial killer related blog postsSerial killers of ‘Mindhunter’: Childhood experiencesThe original research report behind ‘Mindhunter’Comparing the brains of successful and unsuccessful psychopathsThe Crime Classification ManualThe first offender profileForensic psychology related episodesMacDonald, J. B. & Ashton, S. (2024, June 5). Sex therapy, kink and paraphilias (No. 18) [Audio podcast episode]. In Psych Attack. www.psychattack.comMacDonald, J. B. & Malloy, L. (2024, March 2). Developmental insights for investigative interviewing about maltreatment (No. 17) [Audio podcast episode]. In Psych Attack. www.psychattack.comMacDonald, J. B. & March, E. (2022, June 5). An evolutionary perspective of online behaviour (Part 2: Cyber dating abuse)(No. 11) [Audio podcast episode]. In Psych Attack. www.psychattack.comResearch methods related episodesMacDonald, J. B. & Braund, T. A. (2024, Oct 1). Digital phenotyping: Using smartphone metadata to predict mental health symptoms (No. 22) [Audio podcast episode]. In Psych Attack. www.psychattack.comMacDonald, J. B. & Sugden, N. (2021, September 30). Psychometrics and psychological assessment tools (No. 6) [Audio podcast episode]. In Psych Attack. www.psychattack.comMacDonald, J. B. & Tillman, G. (2021, June 22). Mathematical models of how people make decisions (No. 2) [Audio podcast episode]. In Psych Attack. https://www.psychattack.comResearch methods related blog postsThe pragmatic researcherWhat international literature is useful in the Australian context?Interpretivism in qualitative researchExperiences are socially constructed, but by whom? Constructivism vs constructionismInterested in going deeper of p-values?Amrhein, V., Greenland, S., & McShane, B. (2019). Retire statistical significance. Nature, 567, 305-307.Gelman, A. & Stern, H. (2006). The Difference Between “Significant” and “Not Significant” is not Itself Statistically Significant. The American Statistician, 60(4), 328-331.Greenland, S., Senn, S.J.,...
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