This race features one of the most Hispanic districts in the country, the seat is located in the central valley, is just south of another highly competitive district we have covered the 13th (John Duarte vs Adam Gray). The district features Bakersfield, Delano, Tulare and Kettleman City as the main population centers. The district is 76% Hispanic and has been represented by a Republican since 2013. This really speaks to the coalitional shift happening around the country of the Hispanic population moving towards the GOP. David Valadao the republican however only won very narrowly two years ago by just over 500 votes.

Valadao took an unlikely path to political office, he is by trade a dairy farmer and when he was elected to a regional leadership council for, Land O Lakes for whom he is a supplier it whetted his appetite. He noticed from that perch how important government policies are in how they effect our lives. From there he won election to the state assembly in 2010. From there he won a new seat in 2012 to the US House finishing first in an all-party primary with 57% of the vote. Winning comfortably after the redistricting that cycle 58-42.

Valadao notes how he works to educate the Hispanic community he represents on why gas prices are high and how bad democrat policies are driving inflation. The continual climate change anti fossil fuel message also hits a brick wall in this district where a major business is oil and gas production. Valadao notes a little known fact that California has the 5th most gas reserves of any state in the country. He also does a good job hitting the left on their bad prioritization for green energy, explaining that many companies are now avoiding the state because their electrical grid is so unreliable.

Valadao has a pro life record that the democrats are trying to hit him on. He also sets himself apart for the moderates in the district as being one of only several reprublicans to vote in favor of impeaching president Trump the second time.  Despite that he voted with Trump 96.8% of the time and has only voted with Biden 26% of the time. Valadao supports comprehensive immigration reform and broke with other republicans to oppose the dismantling of the DACA program. He also broke ranks to vote against cuts to the food stamp program in 2013. He has been rated the 42nd most bipartisan member of the house.

Rudy Salas is the democrat challenger in this race. He is a 45 year old state assemblyman from Bakersfield who grew up in rougher neighborhoods. He has been active in political lif most of his adulthood. Starting out working as a district director for a state senator, in 2010 he was the first latino elected to the Bakersfield city council. Since then he has served as assemblyman for 10 years. In that role he is proudest of getting funds for an emergency center in Kings county as well as funds for a nursing program.

In the state house he was the only democrat to vote against an increase to the gas tax. He also criticizes Newsom saying he could’ve done a better job on Covid. Salas also boasts that he has been endorsed twice by the NRA. On climate change Salas sounds less insane than his democrat colleagues on the issue. Overall Salas has a good demeanor seems likable, and has a decent depth and comes off as knowledgeable on the issues, he tries to point to things he has actually done rather than speaking in generalities like lesser candidates.

On the financial side of the race the republican incumbent here is winning both the spend battle and the cash on hand battle. On the spend side David Valadao has outspent his opponent $1.95 million to $1.678 million since the beginning of the year. On the cash on hand battle Rudy Salas has only $517k to Valadao’s sizable $1.436 million.

Real Clear Politics, the Cook Political Report and Fox News all list this race in their tossup column. Despite two polls from July and August having Salas up, FiveThirtyEight gives Valadao the edge in their statistical models with him winning in 58 out of 100 models.