240: Thinking In Probabilities & Risk
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240: Thinking In Probabilities & Risk
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About this listen
Markets rarely behave as predicted by mathematical models, and extreme events occur far more frequently than traditional models anticipate. This episode explains why understanding probabilities, fat tails, and risk is essential for long-term success.
We also explore how traders can build more resilient systems by focusing on recovery time, appropriate position sizing, and avoiding strategies vulnerable to black swan events. Discover why win rate alone can be misleading, and how expected value offers a more realistic framework for navigating uncertainty.
Plus, Kirk shares how his own philosophy has evolved over the years and why automation can help enforce discipline and reduce emotional decision-making.
See full show notes here
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In the spirit of reconciliation, Audible acknowledges the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our respect to their elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples today.