In this intellectually rich and surprisingly practical conversation, Bart sits down with Dr. Mike Orkin, distinguished statistician, professor, consultant, and author of The Story of Chance: Beyond the Margin of Error. Dr. Orkin explains how probability, randomness, and risk quietly shape our everyday decisions — from business and investing to gambling, medicine, and life itself. Through accessible examples involving dice, casinos, startups, lotteries, and leadership, he breaks down why luck feels powerful in the short term but fades in the long run, how skill changes outcomes, and why most people misunderstand chance entirely. This episode bridges mathematics, business strategy, and human behavior in a way that’s eye‑opening, grounding, and deeply useful.

Major Takeaways / Learnings

Luck dominates the short run — skill dominates the long run. Repeated decisions reveal predictable outcomes over time.

The Law of Averages explains why randomness eventually stabilizes. Outcomes converge toward probability with repetition.

Expected value (EV) matters more than single outcomes. Winning once means nothing if the long‑term math is negative.

Positive EV isn’t enough — risk management matters. Over‑betting can destroy even the best strategies.

The Kelly System teaches sustainable growth. Betting or investing a fixed fraction prevents catastrophic losses.

Most people confuse correlation with causation. We’re wired to see patterns that don’t actually exist.

Luck is a group phenomenon. In lotteries and mass events, someone wins — but your odds don’t improve.

Better decisions come from understanding uncertainty. Awareness of chance leads to smarter, calmer leadership.

Memorable Quotes

“Luck disappears in the long run.”

“The important probability isn’t that you win — it’s that someone wins.”

“Expected value tells you what happens over time, not today.”

“Positive odds don’t protect you if you bet everything.”

“Most people don’t understand the basic laws of chance.”

“Good strategy beats good intentions when uncertainty is involved.”

Why It Matters / How to Use It

This episode helps listeners make better decisions in an unpredictable world. Whether you’re starting a business, investing, leading a team, or navigating life’s uncertainty, Dr. Mike Orkin’s insights reveal how understanding probability reduces fear, improves judgment, and prevents costly mistakes. The conversation reframes luck not as magic or destiny, but as math — and shows how patience, discipline, and sound strategy create sustainable success. If you want to think more clearly, take smarter risks, and stop being fooled by randomness, this episode delivers timeless wisdom you can apply immediately.