2026 Watch Industry Predictions – A Year of Recovery, Though Scars Remain
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About this listen
On this episode, we step back to assess where the watch industry actually landed in 2025, revisiting our prior predictions with a focus on the bigger forces at work rather than scorekeeping. We talk candidly about the pressure points that defined the year—pricing fatigue, currency and tariff shocks, and the uneven mood among collectors—while also acknowledging the resilience of independent watchmaking and the ways enthusiasm managed to persist despite real headwinds.
From there, the conversation shifts to what those experiences mean looking ahead. We explore how the volatility of the U.S. market is likely to reshape industry behavior in 2026, pushing brands to think more globally and rebalance their attention toward Asia. This isn’t framed as a retreat, but as a strategic response to risk, growth, and changing demographics, alongside a growing appreciation among collectors for watches and design voices emerging from outside the traditional European center of gravity.
Finally, we zoom in on the cultural and structural changes we see gaining momentum: the rising influence of Gen Z, evolving definitions of value and novelty, and a gradual move away from public-facing watch discourse toward smaller, more intentional communities. Whether through new approaches to complications, aesthetics, manufacturing, or how collectors connect with one another, we see an industry that is fragmenting in interesting ways—less centralized, more experimental, and increasingly shaped by how people actually engage with watches today.
Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry.
You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.