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The Black Swan, Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

Incerto, Book 2
Narrated by: Joe Ochman
Length: 15 hrs and 48 mins
4.5 out of 5 stars (55 ratings)

Non-member price: $48.76

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Publisher's Summary

The Black Swan is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible”.

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility”, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book - itself a black swan.

Includes a bonus pdf of tables and figures.

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“The most prophetic voice of all.” (GQ)

Praise for The Black Swan:

“[A book] that altered modern thinking.” (The Times, London)

“A masterpiece.” (Chris Anderson, Editor-in-chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail)

“Hugely enjoyable - compelling...easy to dip into.” (Financial Times)

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2010 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (P)2018 Random House Audio

Critic Reviews

“Engaging.... The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.” (The New York Times Book Review)

“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne.... We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.” (The Wall Street Journal

The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” (Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate)

  “Idiosyncratically brilliant.” (Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times

What members say

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Very interesting and informative.

An excellent take down of experts that rely on statistics. Also an interesting read for anybody who has to deal with so called experts that never seem to get things right.

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full of insights

it is map for how to live a life nothing short of it. it is not complete . i wish i had this when i was much younger

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Self-assured!

Well-read in a voice that sounds as self-assured as the material. Interesting and fun listen. Very relevant and transferable material. He likes making enemies though! They won’t be giving him the Nobel anytime soon!!

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  • Jared M. Short
  • 10-04-2019

so cool!

I'm not a technical consumer but it was a fascinating read. I think I understood 50%.

6 people found this helpful

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  • Anonymous User
  • 08-08-2019

Interesting, but over the top

The book has many great points and is thought provoking in many ways. However, is difficult to get past Taleb's abrasive style of writing. It's very clear he is trying to be intentionally agitating by being completely dismissive of the entire disciplines like social science, economics, and even sometimes biology. I generally prefer authors who are careful and thoughtful with their criticism, so this book annoyed me at times. Still, it has many good points, mainly that bell curves have important limitations in predicting important outliers (although he repeats this point ad nauseam). I have trouble believing, as he asserts, that many high level scientists and speculators don't know about power law distributions or think their methods are clairvoyant. Worth the read if you can get over a lot of straw manning of fields. Taleb is capable of making unique and powerful points.

5 people found this helpful

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  • Brandon K. Kirkham
  • 07-03-2019

Anti-Statistics

The book poses a real challenge to the current paradigm of risk assessment and consequence prediction. The main idea is that most progress and catastrophes occur in unexpected leaps rather than small incremental changes. I’m still trying to figure out how this is useful to me beyond the awareness of this principle. I’ll get there...

6 people found this helpful

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  • Basem Aggad
  • 21-06-2019

it'll change you..

though the book gets into boggling tangents at times, it'll definitely have you question the eventuality of things that occur to you and the world around you.. the narrator's cynicism dramatise the writers intent beautifully.

1 person found this helpful

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    2 out of 5 stars
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  • Jenna Weisz
  • 30-04-2019

I regret listening to this audio.

so listening to this audio was quite a struggle for me. Not necessary because of the performance of The Voice narrator. Honestly I think he did a pretty good job dealing with the material he had. I found the author himself to be pompous and full of himself. Now not saying that some of the things that he was getting at wasn't useful. But this could have been summed up in a longer essay than a novel. I found the writing all over the place and made to be longer than necessary. I also felt that some of his examples where Cherry Picked at most. He seemed to attack everybody basically saying that they were all wrong and he was the only person right. So if you find yourself interested in some of the topic I would go ahead and get the book. Otherwise I would say stay away from this as much as possible. Also sorry for the novel I really just hated this book so much.

5 people found this helpful

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  • S. Hagmüller
  • 06-05-2019

Messy and filled with redundancy

Never knew one could convey simple ideas in such a convoluted manner. 5 subtitles per chapter. Weird imaginary characters with stories going nowhere. No clear thread to follow throughout the book. Too bad.

2 people found this helpful

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  • Russell
  • 02-05-2019

Once a Cult Classic, Now Rising Paradigm

At this point NNT need no introduction.

Out of all his books, this may be the most essential to understanding a worldview that embraces globalization, but cautions against both globalism and reactionary nationalism. Though you will have to connect some dots to arrive at this conclusion.

Listen closely to characterizations of Extremistan and Mediocristan, the 'Triplet of Historical Opacity' and the fractal beauty of what has become known as "the long tail" of probability.

NNT is not only a successful investor, but a powerful renaissance mind falling in a long tradition of Mediterranean thinkers extending into the ancient world.

You won't regret this one!

2 people found this helpful

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  • Claire St. Hilaire
  • 07-11-2019

Unique, relevant, and perspective altering

This book is a must read for anyone who enjoys philosophy, is seeking greater self awareness, or is interested in understanding how to think about risk. Taleb has an incredible mind, a sharp wit, and a grounded approach to life. It is so refreshing to read a book rooted in complex thought and observation, that avoids the quagmire of insular academic thought.

The performance of Joe Ochman is well suited to the tone of the book. Between the writing style and the reading it really feels like you are on a long slow walk with Taleb as he passionately explains his life’s work to you.

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  • Riley Ostlund
  • 25-10-2019

Very Interesting

Taleb introduces a completely new way of thinking and dealing with our not knowing and the unpredictability of the world. Great book.

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  • William E.
  • 15-10-2019

Think differently...

The term BLACK SWAN is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

Taleb is singularly minded and trashes modern economic theories and traditional risk management (like standard deviations), and has plenty of examples to support his case. While I am not ready to totally discard it all, I do think Taleb provides an alternative viewpoint that should always be carefully considered when attempting to predict outcomes. For this reason, this book is on my GLAD I READ IT list.

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  • Mr D Owers
  • 24-06-2019

Excellent

Not like any book I read before. A philosophical viewpoint, elegantly explained with a great sort of condescending wit. Very funny in places and very well narrated. I watched NNT on YouTube and I actually think the narrator's voice suits this book better than the author's. It gets quite technical in places but never too much. 5 stars.

1 person found this helpful

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  • Phil Winston
  • 15-06-2019

Amazing

Probably the single best book I've ever read in my entire life. Seriously, I couldn't stop listening to it.

1 person found this helpful

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  • Shrinivas Siva Prashant Chamarty
  • 04-12-2019

Brilliant and unparalleled perspective on risk.

Unique perspective into risk and probability extremely useful tools as we move from mediocrinistan to extremistan where fat tails/ black swans are more prevelant. Always hated bell curve and after reading this I have a more explainable perspective. Only regret is not reading this book earlier.

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  • Stephane
  • 21-11-2019

bell curve

it shows the flaws of the bell curve, a few w chapter are boring but the author warn you about it

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  • Amazon Customer
  • 16-09-2019

One of best books I ever read

I have listen to 150 books and that book is in my top 5... a must read

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  • Serban Dragne
  • 12-08-2019

Essential reading

This was the third time I’ve read this book since it came out and I know I’ll be rereading it again in the near future. Each time I think I understood it but every time I read it I find something new that sticks with me and I find myself mulling it over for weeks after. Today is 2019 and it feels more prophetic than when it first came out. Bravo!

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  • S. Lormor
  • 19-11-2019

Black Swan

The author’s passion carries you through this debunking of the assumptions that dominate economics at great pace and with interest maintained throughout. He also avoids going overly technical which opens his work to the lay person. I thoroughly enjoyed this.