[Linkpost] "AI 2040: Plan A" by Daniel Kokotajlo, elifland, Thomas Larsen, romeo, bhalstead, ryan_greenblatt

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[Linkpost] "AI 2040: Plan A" by Daniel Kokotajlo, elifland, Thomas Larsen, romeo, bhalstead, ryan_greenblatt

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This is a link post. For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it's done!

It's called AI 2040: Plan A.

It's called Plan A because it's a recommendation, not a prediction. It's what we think should happen, not what will happen, though we think it's plausible enough to aim for.

It's called AI 2040 because in it, they delay the creation of superintelligence to 2040. It would have happened much sooner (in 2030, to be precise) if not for decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments.

As with AI 2027, summaries don’t really do it justice, since the whole point was to be detailed and comprehensive and work things out step by step rather than rely on high-level abstractions like doom or utopia.

Read the scenario at ai-2040.com. You can listen to it on audio, or view it on mobile, but the experience is significantly better on a normal computer.

What's next for us?

Well, first we are going to respond to comments and otherwise engage with whatever conversation, responses, critiques, etc. that [...]

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First published:
July 9th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pFzctpJBat95SrCyC/ai-2040-plan-a

Linkpost URL:
https://www.ai-2040.com/

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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