"Gears for political races" by Tom Smith cover art

"Gears for political races" by Tom Smith

"Gears for political races" by Tom Smith

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In the past few years, many people around me have tried to convince me that US electoral politics is important. But like many other people in the community, I’ve been suspicious of many of the high-level arguments that I’ve heard. It felt like people were pulling numbers out of poorly-documented models I didn’t have time to examine and citing studies I didn’t have time to read. But I lacked a gears-level model of why and how individual efforts could impact electoral outcomes, and I felt intimidated by all the statistics and skeptical of trusting people adjacent to politics.

In the past year, as I’ve done more research and (more recently) volunteered on the ground to help Alex Bores's campaign in NY-12[1] (the guy who passed the RAISE Act and is now being targeted by the giant A16Z, Greg Brockman, Joe Lonsdale Super PAC), I’ve developed a gears-level understanding of how electoral politics in the US works.

I now believe that working on US electoral politics is one of the highest impact areas from the general AIS perspective. I feel like I was a fool. In this post, I’ll share some of the gears I’ve learned that inform this belief [...]

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Outline:

(01:20) ~2% of open-seat primaries come down to 100 votes or less

(02:52) Talking to voters can net 1/3rd of a vote each hour

(05:32) Getting people to bother voting at all is a good strategy

(06:09) Campaigns are very money-constrained, which costs them time

(10:01) Returns don't really diminish

(11:24) There's lots of opportunities to be clever in ways that make you 50% more effective at canvassing

(11:49) If you're motivated and deeply care, you can greatly outperform the majority of volunteers

(13:21) Yes, when people spend tons to support/oppose a candidate, it has a notable effect

(15:16) Donations > reaching out to friends/warm contacts > canvassing > ~anything else an average person can do

(18:41) People over-fixate on vibes and win vs loss

(21:12) Some interventions feel like they don't work but the numbers say otherwise

(21:59) Seriously, a group of agentic people can be an enormous political force

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First published:
June 17th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nSqB3qYP36enJLRq2/gears-for-political-races

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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