"$50 million a year for a 10% chance to ban ASI" by Andrea_Miotti, Alex Amadori, Gabriel Alfour
Failed to add items
Sorry, we are unable to add the item because your shopping cart is already at capacity.
Add to basket failed.
Please try again later
Add to Wish List failed.
Please try again later
Remove from Wish List failed.
Please try again later
Follow podcast failed
Unfollow podcast failed
"$50 million a year for a 10% chance to ban ASI" by Andrea_Miotti, Alex Amadori, Gabriel Alfour
-
Narrated by:
-
By:
About this listen
We're working to make this happen through what we believe is the most natural and promising approach: helping decision-makers in governments and the public understand the risks and take action.
We believe that ControlAI can achieve an international prohibition on ASI development if scaled sufficiently. We estimate that it would take approximately a $50 million yearly budget in funding to give us a concrete chance at achieving this in the next few years. To be more precise: conditional on receiving this funding in the next few months, we feel we would have ~10% probability of success.
In this post, we lay out some of the reasoning behind this estimate, and explain how additional funding past that threshold would continue to significantly improve our chances of success, with $500 million a year producing an estimated ~30% probability of success. [1]
Preventing ASI 101
Negotiating, implementing and enforcing an international prohibition on ASI is, in and of itself, not the work of a single non-profit. You [...]
---
Outline:
(01:17) Preventing ASI 101
(05:44) Awareness is the bottleneck
(09:38) An asymmetric war
(12:08) Scalable processes
(17:32) What wed do with $50 million or more per year
(18:45) US policy advocacy
(21:22) Policy advocacy in the rest of the world
(23:37) Public awareness
(31:15) Grassroots mobilization
(32:31) Policy work
(33:59) Thought-leader advocacy
(36:05) Attracting and retaining the best talent
(37:18) Conclusion
The original text contained 28 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
April 21st, 2026
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TnAR5Sf5hphfnzNTr/usd50-million-a-year-for-a-10-chance-to-ban-asi-1
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
No reviews yet
In the spirit of reconciliation, Audible acknowledges the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our respect to their elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples today.