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The Anatomy of Financial Bubbles | Lessons From 200 Years of Market Panic

The Anatomy of Financial Bubbles | Lessons From 200 Years of Market Panic

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 In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with financial historian and PayPal Mafia member Aman Varejee to explore the recurring patterns behind economic bubbles. Drawing on research from his upcoming book “A Brief History of Financial Bubbles”, Aman explains what defines a bubble, the psychology that fuels speculative manias, and why major technological shifts—from railways to the internet to AI—often coincide with periods of extreme market speculation.—SPONSORS:RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjTabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/runAbacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.aiBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNAman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee/https://practicalvc.com/Aman’s book: https://bigbubbletrouble.com/CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Preview and intro1:38 Welcome and guest intro3:48 Defining a bubble6:03 Cognitive biases behind bubbles10:27 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | Tabs13:56 Do bubbles produce breakthroughs?14:35 Dot-com bubble — winners and losers16:00 UK railway bubble21:24 Bubble warning signs25:30 Sponsors — Abacum | Brex | Metronome28:47 Do bubbles attract grifters?31:11 Role of government in bubbles35:59 Bubble duration vs. severity37:32 2008 — roots go back to 199240:27 Are bubbles connected through time?43:38 Are we in an AI bubble?45:06 Nvidia vs. Cisco valuation comparison46:52 Circular finance in AI49:16 FP&A at PayPal under Thiel and Musk52:02 PayPal's referral campaign and LTV/CAC54:40 Book plug55:09 Credits#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Fintech #EconomicBubbles #FinanceHistory #CFO
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