Three edges for December 22 — Hornets +9.5, 49ers -5.5, and Thunder -16.5 — built on defensive absences, trench mismatches, and elite home-court profiles.

🏀 Charlotte Hornets +9.5 (–110) — at Cavaliers

The market is still pricing Cleveland like the early-season Death Star, but without Mobley their defense has sprung real leaks — bottom-tier lately and giving up video-game scores.

Charlotte is the right kind of underdog:

• Top-6 in made threes

• High-variance volume

• Wings that can hunt shaky perimeter coverage

They just won here 119–111 in OT on 12/14, and +9.5 is a lot of cushion for a team that’s already shown the blueprint. We’re not calling for a repeat upset — just enough buckets to stay inside the number.

🏈 San Francisco 49ers -5.5 (–108) — at Colts

This is trench math.

Indianapolis’ pass protection is duct tape right now with key tackle injuries, and San Francisco gets pressure without blitzing — bad news when your quarterback’s mobility is measured in museum exhibit.

Offensively, Purdy is built to carve up zone coverage, and Indy lives in zone… which is like bringing a squirt gun to a flamethrower fight. If SF gets up two scores, Anthony Richardson has to throw into a defense that can sit on routes.

Script screams 27–13-ish. We’ll lay it.

🏀 Oklahoma City Thunder -16.5 (–110) — Grizzlies at Thunder

OKC at home has been a cover machine even when the number looks rude:

• 13–0 at home

• ~+20 average margin

Memphis is short on real ball-handlers, and OKC’s entire identity is turning shaky dribbles into instant layups. Turnovers become points like an auto-reply email.

Even if OKC goes small, Memphis doesn’t have the healthy creators to punish it for 48 minutes. The only sweat is “Memphis shoots 45% from three” — and banking on that is basically buying lottery tickets in bulk.

Three games. Three edges.

One principle: mismatches compound.

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