Three edges for December 21 — Broncos -3.5, Ravens -2.5, and Knicks -7.5 — built on pass-rush leverage, trench dominance, and schedule-driven separation.

🏈 Denver Broncos -3.5 (Even) — Jaguars at Broncos

Denver’s pass rush is the handicap. Full stop.

• 58 sacks (~10% sack rate)

• Jacksonville ranks 27th in sack rate allowed / pass-block win rate

Trevor Lawrence’s EPA craters under pressure, and Denver gets home without blitzing, which lets Surtain erase the first read. Add Mile High’s fourth-quarter oxygen tax, and a Jaguars profile inflated by a noisy turnover margin, and this becomes a grown-up lay.

We’ll give the hook and trust gravity.

🏈 Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (–120) — Patriots at Ravens

New England’s run defense without Spillane went from brick wall to open house:

• EPA/rush: -0.14 → +0.07

• Success rate: 38% → 53%

That’s jet fuel for Derrick Henry, the human snowplow. The Patriots’ red-zone defense has also turned into a revolving door (75% TD rate allowed), and Baltimore’s man coverage forces Drake Maye into tighter-window throws — where rookies start filing donations.

Win the trenches. Win the fourth quarter. Cash.

🏀 New York Knicks -7.5 (–110) — Heat at Knicks

Madison Square Garden has been a spread-covering ATM: 13–2 ATS at home.

Miami arrives in the classic third game in four nights, without Herro’s shot creation. That’s how you get tired closeouts, lost rebounds, and a two-minute scoring drought that turns into a 14–2 run.

Three games. Three edges.

One principle: pressure creates separation.

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