Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds Draws Competitive Field cover art

Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds Draws Competitive Field

Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds Draws Competitive Field

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 Fair Grounds – Gun Runner Stakes
According to US Racing, morning-line favorite Liberty National opened at 7-2 but is taking steady support in all pools off his dominant Churchill win and 103 figure, suggesting he may go off closer to 5-2. That shortens Mesquite and Chip Honcho slightly as underlays, while Brad Cox runners Arabia Wild and Mister Punch hold as overlays relative to form and upside. The pace projects hot with Chip Honcho (Paco Lopez) and Mister Punch (Luis Saez) forcing it, creating value on stalkers/closers like Liberty National (Brian Hernandez Jr.) and Mesquite (Jose Ortiz). Any upgrade to closers if the track plays fair-to-slow; front-end bias would sharply boost Chip Honcho’s chances. Class-rise colt Quality Mischief (Marcelino Pedroza Jr.) has hidden value if the track comes up wet, as he already handled a muddy surface in Indiana.

Market influences: no major equipment or Lasix angles reported in the feature, but trainer patterns are strong: Kenny McPeek in two-turn juveniles and Brad Cox on this circuit both reliably attract late money. Watch for late win-pool surges on whichever Cox horse gets bet hardest; that has historically signaled barn confidence at Fair Grounds. Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences are expected to lean heavily on Liberty National as a single, creating value for players spreading to Arabia Wild and Very Connected in exotics.

Laurel Park
The Racing Biz notes deep fields but modest pools, with a small Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 carryover encouraging wider coverage. That dilutes any one horse’s influence but creates overlays on logical contenders in mid-level claimers. Otter Mischief in Race 7 and Prince of Jericho in Race 8 profile as likely win-pool underlays off visible recent stakes form, whereas longshots like Northern Flame project as value in exactas and trifectas if the main track continues to favor speed.

If the Laurel surface stays dry and fast, early pace types such as What Does It Take in Race 6 and Otter Mischief in Race 7 gain an edge; any late moisture would help off-pace runners like Hagrid’s Flame. Several horses with documented troubled trips, including I’d Rather Not in Race 1 and Artist Mark in Race 4, become attractive overlays if the board overlooks those excuses.

Turfway Park – Holiday Inaugural
Keeneland Select highlights Ellen Jay with a 108 all-weather figure as a likely overlay if bettors fixate on her recent poor dirt effort. Irad Ortiz Jr. riding for Brendan Walsh will attract sharp late money; line movement toward Ellen Jay and away from Tart would reflect confidence in the surface switch. With a large synthetic sprint stakes pool, expect strong exacta and trifecta action; horses with prior Presque Isle all-weather form like Tart can be undervalued underneath if Ellen Jay is hammered late.

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