Three edges for December 20 — Real Madrid -2, Colston Loveland Over 44.5 receiving yards, and Tulane +17.5 — built on venue dominance, weather-driven volume, and spread geometry.

⚽ Real Madrid -2 (–120) — Sevilla FC at Real Madrid

The Bernabéu has been a Sevilla horror movie since 2008, and this sequel is missing half the cast. Sevilla’s counterpunch is essentially on AFCON PTO (Adams/Ejuke), their chance creation has been thin all year, and Madrid still leads the chance-factory metrics even when finishing hasn’t cooperated.

Expect wave-after-wave pressure, corners, and territorial control. The most common scorelines here cluster around 2–0 / 3–0, not a sweaty one-goal squeak. We lay the two and let gravity do the rest.

🏈 Colston Loveland OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (–110) — Packers at Bears

Chicago’s WR room is running a limited menu, so targets have to go somewhere — and in wind-whipping Soldier Field, the tight end is the safest kitchen.

With Odunze/Burden OUT, Loveland’s target share should jump, and the weather nudges Caleb Williams into short/intermediate throws (TE heaven). Add Green Bay’s pass-rush downgrade and you’ve got cleaner pockets plus a big, friendly “throw it here” sign. Volume beats vibes.

🏈 Tulane +17.5 (–105) — at Ole Miss

The market is still pricing September’s 45–10 like a permanent condition, not a snapshot. Tulane’s QB Retzlaff is a different animal now — dual-threat, better sack avoidance — and this is a classic shorten the game, steal possessions script that makes big spreads miserable.

Ole Miss without Lane Kiffin is a real tax on explosive play-calling: same talent, fewer cheat codes. +17.5 is the hook that turns a comfortable Ole Miss win into cash anyway.

Three games. Three edges.

One principle: context compounds value.

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