Market Pulse — Friday: Oil, Gas, Credit, Real Estate & Stocks Week-End Wrap cover art

Market Pulse — Friday: Oil, Gas, Credit, Real Estate & Stocks Week-End Wrap

Market Pulse — Friday: Oil, Gas, Credit, Real Estate & Stocks Week-End Wrap

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 Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily An AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. This is Market Pulse — Friday's Numbers Oil Markets • WTI Crude: $70.08 per barrel (up 0.4%) • Brent: $73.91 (up 0.5%) • WTI-Brent spread: $3.83 • Oil prices gained ground as markets assessed supply dynamics heading into year-end • Despite Friday's gains, crude remains under pressure from oversupply concerns • U.S. production continues at record levels near 13.6 million barrels per day • OPEC Plus maintains production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, with next increase delayed until April 2026 • Analysts project WTI will average $65-$70 in 2026, with downward pressure from growing non-OPEC supply Natural Gas Markets • Henry Hub: $4.61 per million British thermal units (up 1.8%) • Prices ticked higher as colder weather forecasts emerged for late December and early January • LNG export demand remains robust, with facilities operating near capacity • Storage levels sit 5% below the five-year average, providing support for prices • EIA projects Henry Hub will average $4.30 overall in winter 2025-26 • Natural gas has pulled back from three-year highs reached earlier this month but remains well-supported by export demand and seasonal factors Credit Markets • SOFR held at 3.93% following Wednesday's Fed rate cut • Federal funds rate now sits at 3.50-3.75%, marking third consecutive cut since September • Fed signaled cautious approach to future cuts, with only one additional reduction expected in 2026 • Credit markets adjusting to new rate environment • Three-month SOFR rate now below ten-year SOFR rate, meaning short-term floating-rate funding is cheaper than long-term fixed-rate funding • Inverted curve suggests markets expect rates to remain lower for longer • Corporate bond issuance remains strong as companies lock in favorable rates • Senior secured loans with SOFR plus 650 basis points and LTV under 65% continue to offer attractive risk-adjusted returns Stock Markets • Stock markets ended the week on a mixed note • S&P 500: closed at 6,051 (down 0.5% for the week, but still up over 27% year-to-date) • Nasdaq Composite: fell 0.7% for the week to 19,926 (pressured by concerns about AI spending following Oracle's disappointing earnings) • Dow Jones Industrial Average: rose 0.3% for the week to 43,828 (supported by industrial and financial stocks) • Oracle's stock plunged over 10% Thursday after reporting weak revenue guidance and increased capital expenditure forecasts • The sell-off sparked broader concerns about AI profitability and sustainability • Nvidia and other AI-related stocks declined in sympathy • Tech sector volatility increased as investors reassessed valuations • Energy stocks outperformed, rising 2.1% for the week on higher oil prices mid-week • Financials gained 1.4%, benefiting from steeper yield curves and strong lending activity Real Estate Markets • Existing home sales data showed continued weakness • November sales fell 4.8% to 4.15 million units • Median home prices rose 4.7% year-over-year to $406,100 • Inventory remains tight at 1.37 million homes, a 3.8-month supply • Mortgage rates held near 6.7%, constraining affordability • Industrial real estate remains strong, driven by e-commerce demand and nearshoring trends • Office vacancy rates hit record highs at 18.7% • Industrial cap rates compressed below 5.5% in key logistics markets Bottom Line • Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. WTI up 0.4% to $70.08, Brent up 0.5% to $73.91. U.S. production at record 13.6 million barrels per day. OPEC Plus cuts maintained. Analysts project $65-$70 in 2026. • Gas: Up 1.8% to $4.61. Colder weather forecasts emerging. LNG exports near capacity. Storage 5% below average. EIA projects $4.30 winter average. • Credit: SOFR at 3.93%, federal funds at 3.50-3.75%. Three-month SOFR below ten-year. One additional cut expected in 2026. Senior secured loans attractive at SOFR plus 650, LTV under 65%. • Stocks: S&P 500 at 6,051 (down 0.5% for week, up 27% year-to-date). Nasdaq at 19,926 (down 0.7%). Dow at 43,828 (up 0.3%). Oracle concerns weighed on AI stocks. Energy up 2.1%, financials up 1.4%. • Real Estate: Sales down 4.8% to 4.15 million units. Median price $406,100. Mortgage rates 6.7%. Industrial cap rates below 5.5% in key markets. Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.
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