Try free for 30 days
-
Superforecasting
- The Art and Science of Prediction
- Narrated by: Joel Richards
- Length: 9 hrs and 45 mins
Failed to add items
Add to basket failed.
Add to Wish List failed.
Remove from Wish List failed.
Follow podcast failed
Unfollow podcast failed
Buy Now for $26.99
No valid payment method on file.
We are sorry. We are not allowed to sell this product with the selected payment method
Listeners also picked
-
The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
- Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
-
-
Required reading for every inquiring mind
- By MarkS on 05-04-2021
-
Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- By: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time.
-
-
Unbelievable map for structuring thinking. Very useful.
- By X on 28-02-2024
-
How to Decide
- Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
- By: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut.
-
-
Waste of my time
- By Anonymous User on 27-01-2021
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 10 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
-
Great book BUT...
- By James on 18-10-2018
-
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
- The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger
- By: Charles T. Munger
- Narrated by: Grover Gardener
- Length: 13 hrs and 9 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
"Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up," Charles T. Munger advises in Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Originally published in 2005, this compendium of 11 talks, delivered by the legendary Berkshire Hathaway vice-chairman between 1986 and 2007, has become a touchstone for a generation of investors and entrepreneurs seeking to absorb the enduring wit and wisdom of one of the great minds of the 20th and 21st centuries.
-
-
Narrator will put you to sleep
- By Kindle Customer on 08-01-2024
-
Alpha Trader
- The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading
- By: Brent Donnelly
- Narrated by: Brent Donnelly
- Length: 12 hrs and 59 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Trading is a chaotic, complex, and loosely-structured game played by the smartest minds and most expensive computers in the world. It is the ultimate puzzle. Few can trade at an elite level for an extended period. The game is constantly changing and the rules, mechanics, and probabilities are difficult to observe and forever in flux. Just when you think you’ve got a plan: BAM.
-
-
great insights into the mind of a successful trader
- By Shono on 21-02-2024
-
The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
- Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
-
-
Required reading for every inquiring mind
- By MarkS on 05-04-2021
-
Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- By: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time.
-
-
Unbelievable map for structuring thinking. Very useful.
- By X on 28-02-2024
-
How to Decide
- Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
- By: Annie Duke
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut.
-
-
Waste of my time
- By Anonymous User on 27-01-2021
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 10 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
-
Great book BUT...
- By James on 18-10-2018
-
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
- The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger
- By: Charles T. Munger
- Narrated by: Grover Gardener
- Length: 13 hrs and 9 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
"Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up," Charles T. Munger advises in Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Originally published in 2005, this compendium of 11 talks, delivered by the legendary Berkshire Hathaway vice-chairman between 1986 and 2007, has become a touchstone for a generation of investors and entrepreneurs seeking to absorb the enduring wit and wisdom of one of the great minds of the 20th and 21st centuries.
-
-
Narrator will put you to sleep
- By Kindle Customer on 08-01-2024
-
Alpha Trader
- The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading
- By: Brent Donnelly
- Narrated by: Brent Donnelly
- Length: 12 hrs and 59 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Trading is a chaotic, complex, and loosely-structured game played by the smartest minds and most expensive computers in the world. It is the ultimate puzzle. Few can trade at an elite level for an extended period. The game is constantly changing and the rules, mechanics, and probabilities are difficult to observe and forever in flux. Just when you think you’ve got a plan: BAM.
-
-
great insights into the mind of a successful trader
- By Shono on 21-02-2024
-
The Logic of Sports Betting
- By: Ed Miller, Matthew Davidow
- Narrated by: Paul Thomas
- Length: 6 hrs and 41 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
How do sportsbooks make their lines? Which types of bets are the best? Can you beat the house? The Logic Of Sports Betting answers all these questions and more with a dash of humor and a whole lot of real talk about how it all works. Peek behind the counter and learn how sportsbooks operate. Combine that insider knowledge with why-didn’t-I-think-of-that sports betting logic, and you have the winning formula.
-
Bernoulli's Fallacy
- Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
- By: Aubrey Clayton
- Narrated by: Tim H. Dixon
- Length: 15 hrs and 14 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the 17th-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it.
-
Gambler
- Secrets from a Life at Risk
- By: Billy Walters
- Narrated by: Billy Walters
- Length: 10 hrs and 56 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Anybody can get lucky. Nobody controls the odds like Billy Walters. Widely regarded as “the Michael Jordan of sports betting,” Walters is a living legend in Las Vegas and among sports bettors worldwide. With an unmatched winning streak of thirty-six consecutive years, Walters has become fabulously wealthy by placing hundreds of millions of dollars a year in gross wagers, including one Super Bowl bet of $3.5 million alone. Competitors desperate to crack his betting techniques have tried hacking his phones, cloning his beepers, rifling through his trash, and bribing his employees.
-
-
Almost unlistenable
- By Kincade on 05-10-2023
-
Superintelligence
- Paths, Dangers, Strategies
- By: Nick Bostrom
- Narrated by: Napoleon Ryan
- Length: 14 hrs and 17 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Superintelligence asks the questions: What happens when machines surpass humans in general intelligence? Will artificial agents save or destroy us? Nick Bostrom lays the foundation for understanding the future of humanity and intelligent life. The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. If machine brains surpassed human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become extremely powerful - possibly beyond our control.
-
-
Maybe it's a good book...
- By Abner on 05-03-2019
-
The Innovators
- How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution
- By: Walter Isaacson
- Narrated by: Dennis Boutsikaris
- Length: 17 hrs and 28 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Following his blockbuster biography of Steve Jobs, The Innovators is Walter Isaacson’s revealing story of the people who created the computer and the Internet. It is destined to be the standard history of the digital revolution and an indispensable guide to how innovation really happens. What were the talents that allowed certain inventors and entrepreneurs to turn their visionary ideas into disruptive realities? What led to their creative leaps? Why did some succeed and others fail?
-
-
Great book.
- By NICK G on 29-05-2015
-
More Than You Know
- Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
- By: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrated by: Sean Runnette
- Length: 7 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management.
-
-
an excellent insight into a number of Fields
- By John C on 14-03-2019
-
Benjamin Franklin: An American Life
- By: Walter Isaacson
- Narrated by: Nelson Runger
- Length: 24 hrs and 40 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Benjamin Franklin is the founding father who winks at us - an ambitious urban entrepreneur who rose up the social ladder, from leather-aproned shopkeeper to dining with kings. In best-selling author Walter Isaacson's vivid and witty full-scale biography, we discover why Franklin turns to us from history's stage with eyes that twinkle from behind his new-fangled spectacles. In Benjamin Franklin, Isaacson shows how Franklin defines both his own time and ours. The most interesting thing that Franklin invented, and continually reinvented, was himself.
-
-
Rather verbose
- By Richard on 07-01-2019
-
Algorithms to Live By
- The Computer Science of Human Decisions
- By: Brian Christian, Tom Griffiths
- Narrated by: Brian Christian
- Length: 11 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of human memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living.
-
-
A unique and brilliant self help book
- By Gary Beilby on 18-04-2018
-
The Education of a Value Investor
- My Transformative Quest for Wealth, Wisdom and Enlightenment
- By: Guy Spier
- Narrated by: Malk Williams
- Length: 6 hrs and 28 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
What happens when a young Wall Street investment banker spends a small fortune to have lunch with Warren Buffett? He becomes a real value investor. In this fascinating inside story, Guy Spier details his career from Harvard MBA to hedge fund manager. But the path was not so straightforward. Spier reveals his transformation from a Gordon Gekko wannabe, driven by greed, to a sophisticated investor who enjoys success without selling his soul to the highest bidder.
-
-
Very deep and insightful
- By Ali on 12-09-2018
-
Naked Statistics
- Stripping the Dread from the Data
- By: Charles Wheelan
- Narrated by: Jonathan Davis
- Length: 10 hrs and 48 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
-
-
Worth persevering
- By Cedric Hodges on 29-10-2018
-
The Drunkard's Walk
- How Randomness Rules Our Lives
- By: Leonard Mlodinow
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 9 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In this irreverent and illuminating audiobook, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, chance, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious causes, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
-
-
a fantastic look at randomness
- By Amazon Customer on 31-08-2018
-
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- Incerto, Book 1
- By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrated by: Joe Ochman
- Length: 8 hrs and 57 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill - the world of trading - Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives.
-
-
better than most books but underwhelming
- By Amazon Customer on 04-07-2022
Publisher's Summary
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
More from the same
What listeners say about Superforecasting
Average Customer RatingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Prophetmines
- 22-02-2018
Of little value
What would have made Superforecasting better?
It's not a very strong argument compared to say kahneman and tversky.
What could Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner have done to make this a more enjoyable book for you?
I don't think it adds enough value to be a book.
How did the narrator detract from the book?
The writing was dull so I suppose the narrator didn't have much to work with.
What reaction did this book spark in you? Anger, sadness, disappointment?
I wonder how much money has been wasted funding this academic folly
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
2 people found this helpful
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Nicholas Mason
- 20-02-2024
The epilogue was the best part
Overall good, but 2-3x as long as it needs to be. Lots of waffling & irrelevant story telling
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Icarus
- 13-01-2023
This is one of those books that change your thinking
Before listening to this book, I hadn’t realised how easily we fall prey to wonky predictions made by supposedly knowledgeable people who often don’t measure the accuracy of their forecasts, which are very vague to begin with!
The book also sheds some light on how people can emulate the superforecasters by breaking down big questions into small ones and by testing their assumptions.
Everyone should read this book. The benefits of good forecasting are felt everywhere in our modern society.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Nenad
- 25-08-2022
Transformational
The start to the book was a touch esoteric but as it progressed, I felt the core of forecasting was so elegantly synthesised into accessible chunks of knowledge that a risk or strategy practitioner could readily apply in their every day thinking. the principles of forecasting are as applicable to a household as they are to a trillion dollar business. This book is one of the most important listens for anyone even remotely serious about doing risk management properly.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Amazon Customer
- 21-08-2020
Improved angles for predicting new outcomes!.
I bought this audio-book just because I was bored, really... I mean; a system to predict future events? Can anyone do that?
Is it an art? However, I will never regret listen to this audio-book. I paid the price I paid, but I got a lot back in a tenfold!.
Now, if I had to sell acres of my land, like Don Quixote did to get this book ... It is a 100% probability that I would!.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Zishan Xu
- 17-06-2020
engaging. interesting. erudite
Well written and easily accessible, superforcasters provides many gems of wisdom that can be applied to any field.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- gary Fallon
- 03-09-2019
Insights into the disclipined mind of forecasting.
A summary of some very hard long term research into understanding decision bias. Then using these understandings to critically review a question on the future. Break it down and provide a rational prediction. A good read.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Galahadoc
- 04-05-2019
Came recommended, would recommend to others.
I never felt wholly engaged and always carried doubts that the information about the Super Forecasters 'could' have been cherry picked - for example if this was written at year 3 and one of the main people discussed bombed out at this point he could have been dropped to discuss someone that didn't bomb - Bill might have previously been George. Even with these doubts in mind I still thought the general lessons were great and appreciated the simple descriptions to complex ideas.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
- Cedric Hodges
- 12-05-2018
Well worth a listen
This book provides a great balance between deep concepts and helpful anecdotes and stories. I'd recommend to anyone interested in economics or data science.
Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.
You voted on this review!
You reported this review!